Haishun Yang - UNL Associate Professor of Agronomy and Horticulture

Yield Chart for 2016 Corn Yield Forecasts

Hindsight of 2016 Corn Yield Forecasts by the Yield Forecasting Center May 11, 2017

Here we provide an evaluation of the corn yield forecasts released during the 2016 crop season by the Yield Forecast Center. We compared our end-of-season forecasted yield potential against the average corn yields reported by USDA NASS for rainfed and irrigated production.

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Graph showing simulated corn yields versus measured yield

New Hybrid-Maize Improves Corn Yield Predictions Under Drought Stress February 27, 2017

Crop simulation models are powerful tools to guide research, education, and extension as well as to inform policy making. Such models generally perform better under non-water stress conditions and it has been a scientific challenge to simulate crop yield under severe drought stress.

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CornSoyWater graphic
CornSoyWater graphic

CornSoyWater: An Online App to Aid in Irrigation Management December 16, 2016

Traditional irrigation decision-making relies heavily on experience and requires frequent visits to the field. The process is time consuming and labor demanding, while the results are not quantitative and prone to error.

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Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)
Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)

Yield Forecast Center Predicts Corn Yields Well Below USDA-NASS Projections September 22, 2016

End-of-season yield forecasts for irrigated and dryland corn across eight states in the Corn Belt indicate above average yields for 2016, but not the record-breaking yields predicted by USDA in their September forecast. While two states are forecast to have yields below the 10-year average (-1% to -4%), the remaining states showed above average yields ranging from 1% to 21% above the 10-year average.

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Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.
Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.

Corn Yield Forecasts as of Sept. 7 September 8, 2016

The Sept. 7 corn yield forecasts show a majority of the irrigated sites expected to produce above normal, but not record-breaking yields. Forecasted yields for rainfed sites are more variable, although most are expected to be near normal. Above average yields are expected for 11 of the 37 sites studied and below-normal yields are forecast for five sites.

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Map of corn yield deviation from long-term averages

Corn Yield Forecasts for Aug. 24, Including State Forecasts August 25, 2016

August 24 corn yield forecasts for 41 sites across the Corn Belt showed many near or above average. At Nebraska rainfed corn sites there is a high probability (>75%) of above-average yield at the North Platte and central east sites and a high probability (>75%) of below-average yield at the southwestern and southeastern Nebraska sites (McCook, Clay Center, and Beatrice). In irrigated corn there was a high probability of near or above average yields for all except the Beatrice site. See the story for data tables and discussion.

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A corn field at mid-grain filling near Atkinson, Nebr. (Photo courtesy of Nicolas Cafaro La Menza and Mariano Hernandez; taken August 10, 2016).
A corn field at mid-grain filling near Atkinson, Nebr. (Photo courtesy of Nicolas Cafaro La Menza and Mariano Hernandez; taken August 10, 2016).

2016 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 10 August 11, 2016

Simulations of 2016 end-of-season corn yield potential for 41 sites indicate high probability of near or above-average yields in irrigated fields, but much more variability across the Corn Belt for rainfed fields. Several sites in southern and northeast Nebraska and in Iowa show a higher probability of below average yields. The article includes yield forecasts for each site, along with conditions for the period contributing to the forecasts.

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A corn field at early stages of grain filling near Saronville, Nebr.  (Photo by Agustina Diale; taken on July 27, 2016.)
A corn field at early stages of grain filling near Saronville, Nebr. (Photo by Agustina Diale; taken on July 27, 2016.)

2016 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 27 July 28, 2016

Corn yield forecasts, based on Hybrid-Maize simulations and input from crop experts in 10 states, were developed for 41 sites across the Corn Belt on July 27. For irrigated corn, based on this conditions at this point in the season, there is only a low probability of below average yields. For rainfed corn, the majority of the sites studied, the results are more variable across locations. The article includes yield forecasts for each site, along with conditions for the period contributing to the forecasts.

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