2021 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 4

2021 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 4

Simulations of 2021 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage were performed on Aug. 4 for 39 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. This article summarizes the simulated crop stages and yield forecasts; the data can be viewed in Table 1. Details on the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model and the underpinning methodology to simulate phenology and forecast end-of-season yields, as well as on interpretation and uses of yield forecasts, are described in a previous article. Note that one location in IL (Olney) was not included for the forecasts due to lack of weather data.

Although past weeks have alternate high and low temperatures, on average, air temperature over the past three weeks has remained near the historical average in most of the Corn Belt, with a few sites showing values below (KS) or above (ND and northern MN) the historical average. In the case of rainfall, most locations in the eastern fringe of the Corn Belt exhibited near-normal rainfall, while most sites in NE, MN and ND and some sites in IA and KS presented below normal rainfall. A summary of weather conditions during the last three weeks is shown in Figure 1.

Graph of Daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, total rainfall, and total reference grass-based evapotranspiration (ET) for the time period between July 14 and Aug. 3, 2021
Figure 1. Daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), total rainfall, and total reference grass-based evapotranspiration (ET) for the time period between July 14 and Aug. 3, 2021. Vertical bars indicate the range for these variables based on 20-plus years of weather records. The horizontal thick line indicates the long-term average and the red dots indicate the 2021 values for the same period.
Table 1. Data from simulations of 2021 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on Aug. 3.
LocationWater regimeLong-term average yield (bu/ac) §Range of Yp forecasts as of Aug 03 (bu/ac)¶ 25thRange of Yp forecasts as of Aug 03 (bu/ac)¶ 75thProbability (%) of 2021 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2021 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2021 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)†Simulated current crop stage*
NE Alliance Irrigated 193 190 215 0% 69% 31% R3, Milk
Beatrice Dryland 162 140 175 39% 45% 16% R4, Dough
Irrigated 230 217 233 16% 84% 0% R4, Dough
Clay Center Dryland 160 47 110 95% 5% 0% R3, Milk
Irrigated 245 229 253 13% 82% 5% R3, Milk
Concord Dryland 177 89 117 100% 0% 0% R2, Blister
Irrigated 249 233 269 8% 77% 15% R3, Milk
Elgin Irrigated 252 239 271 6% 70% 24% R2, Blister
Holdrege Dryland 115 75 135 42% 21% 36% R3, Milk
Irrigated 242 225 264 15% 64% 21% R2, Blister
McCook Dryland 88 59 92 51% 31% 18% R4, Dough
Irrigated 225 201 225 31% 67% 3% R4, Dough
Mead Dryland 183 109 164 74% 21% 5% R3, Milk
Irrigated 235 218 239 18% 74% 8% R3, Milk
North Platte Dryland 91 48 95 64% 18% 18% R3, Milk
Irrigated 234 229 264 3% 59% 38% R3, Milk
O'Neill Irrigated 227 207 234 22% 67% 11% R3, Milk
IA Ames Dryland 231 172 188 94% 6% 0% R4, Dough
Crawfordsville Dryland 230 215 235 13% 81% 6% R3, Milk
Lewis Dryland 209 208 239 9% 52% 39% R3, Milk
Nashua Dryland 229 181 198 91% 6% 3% R3, Milk
Sutherland Dryland 211 192 208 25% 66% 9% R3, Milk
IL Bondville Dryland 235 236 268 0% 59% 41% R3, Milk
Freeport Dryland 213 175 203 45% 42% 13% R3, Milk
Olney Dryland 189
Peoria Dryland 210 219 244 0% 64% 36% R3, Milk
Springfield Dryland 178 217 229 0% 5% 95% R4, Dough
IN Butlerville Dryland 225 207 233 22% 78% 0% R3, Milk
Columbia City Dryland 224 222 238 0% 83% 17% R2, Blister
Davis Dryland 231 233 255 0% 72% 28% R2, Blister
West Lafayette Dryland 238 230 256 0% 83% 17% R3, Milk
KS Garden City Irrigated 219 199 221 20% 77% 3% R4, Dough
Hutchinson Dryland 100 102 113 0% 68% 32% R5, Dent
Manhattan Dryland 135 159 174 0% 6% 94% R4, Dough
Scandia Dryland 132 41 78 100% 0% 0% R3, Milk
Irrigated 225 215 249 9% 66% 26% R3, Milk
Silverlake Dryland 140 153 166 0% 34% 66% R4, Dough
Irrigated 210 192 212 17% 83% 0% R4, Dough
MI Ceresco Dryland 177 212 249 0% 10% 90% R2, Blister
MN Eldred Dryland 115 8 9 100% 0% 0% R3, Milk
Lamberton Dryland 215 155 170 100% 0% 0% R3, Milk
Waseca Dryland 219 190 232 32% 54% 15% R3, Milk
MO Brunswick Dryland 181 182 201 0% 71% 29% R3, Milk
Monroe City Dryland 172 204 226 0% 5% 95% R3, Milk
St Joseph Dryland 165 184 207 5% 14% 81% R3, Milk
ND Dazey Dryland 113 0 0 100% 0% 0% R3, Milk
OH Custar Dryland 208 198 222 11% 72% 17% R2, Blister
South Charleston Dryland 216 205 234 6% 77% 16% R2, Blister
Wooster Dryland 210 209 229 6% 72% 22% R2, Blister

§Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2021 potential yields based on average planting date in 2021, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2021 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location.

Simulated Corn Stage Across 40 Locations

Corn has reached kernel milk stage in almost the entire Corn Belt, except for the eastern fringe of the region (OH, MI and IN) where it is still in blister stage. Some sites in the southern fringe of the region (KS and southern NE and IL) are ahead of the rest of the locations, with corn reaching the dough and even dent stage (Figure 2). Most locations are similar to last year’s corn development by Aug. 4.

Figure 2. Simulated developmental stage for irrigated and rainfed corn at each location. R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).

Irrigated Corn: High Probability of Near-average Yields

The range of forecasted irrigated corn yield potential for each location, as well as the probabilities for yields above, near or below average, are shown in Figures 3 and 4. Six out of 13 sites exhibit a high probability (>75%, that is, a chance of three out of four) of near-average yield potential. Favorable weather during the rest of the season that results in a long grain-filling period may increase the likelihood of above-average yield. The chance of below-average yield is low across all irrigated sites. At this point, the forecasted scenario for irrigated maize in the current season seems similar to the 2020 forecasts in nine out of 13 sites.

Variable 2021 Forecasted Corn Yield Across Rainfed Locations

Forecasted yield potential is highly variable across the 35 rainfed sites (Figures 3 and 4). There is a high probability of above-average yield (>75%) at five sites in the southern fringe of the Corn Belt and MI, while nine sites distributed across the central (IA), western (NE and northern KS), and northern (ND and MN) regions have a high probability of below-average yields. Very low yields are predicted at the uttermost northern sites (Eldred, MN and Dazey, ND). Probability of near-average yield is relatively high in the central and eastern part of the Corn Belt (most of IL, IN and OH).

Compared with our previous forecast, below-average rainfall in most of NE, ND, MN and two sites in IA during the past three weeks increased the probability of below-average yields in that area, reducing the forecasted yield for the 2021 season. In contrast, above-average rainfall in a few scattered locations (Manhattan, KS, Ceresco, MI and South Charleston, OH) has improved the yield forecasted for rainfed maize in those sites by mid-July. Compared with the 2020 forecast, the forecasted scenario for rainfed maize seems more pessimistic in ND, MN, northwestern NE and central IA in the current season. In the remaining area, the scenario looks similar or even more favorable compared with 2020 forecasts.

Figure 3. Vertical lines indicate the range of forecasted 2021 corn yield potential by Aug. 4 based on average planting date in 2021 at each location. Horizontal lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles of the yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). The blue squares indicate the long-term (2005-2020) average yield potential at each location. Separate charts are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).

Yields in Dazey, ND and Eldred, MN cannot be accurately forecasted due to very low rainfall.

Figure 4. Probability of the 2021 yield potential to be below (<10%, red color), near (± 10%, yellow color), and above (>10%, green color) the long-term (2005-2020) average yield potential at each location. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom). The larger a color section is within the pie chart, the higher the probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category.

Conclusions

Similarly to our previous forecast in mid-July, the probability for a “record yield year” for the whole country is low considering that the probability for above average yield is small (<25%) in 66% of the rainfed sites and 77% of the irrigated sites. There is a high probability of near-average yields for the majority of the irrigated sites.

For rainfed corn, the scenario is diverse across regions. Most sites in the central and eastern part of the Corn Belt have a high probability of near-average yields. Above-average yield is expected at five locations mostly located in the southern fringe of the Corn Belt and MI. In contrast, nine sites located in the western and northern areas of the Corn Belt and central IA exhibit a high probability of below-average yields. Temperature and rainfall during August will likely define the trend for all sites across the region.

These forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here. It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average on-farm yield for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop stages and forecasted yields will deviate from the ones reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from those used as the basis for the forecasts (see Table 1 in this July 14 article). We will follow up with further forecasts in late August.

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A field of corn.