Sotirios Archontoulis - ISU Assistant Professor

Yield forecast locations

2018 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results

June 29, 2018
Here's how the Yield Forecasting Center will be developing corn yield forecasts for 41 locations across the Corn Belt during the 2018 crop season. Modeling, using Hybrid-Maize, weather data, and on-site verification help researchers estimate yields so growers can adjust management during the season, if necessary.

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Map indicating how various Nebraska and Kansas sites are expected to vary from average yields.

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts as of September 20

September 21, 2017
Crop modelers wrap up their forecasts of rainfed and irrigated corn yields across the Corn Belt for 2017, noting above-average yields for about 80% of the irrigated sites and more than 60% of the rainfed sites. Irrigated yields ranged from 11%-17% over long-term averages at those sites and rainfed yields at those sites were 13%-40% above average. View data for all the sites.

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Forecast of end-of-season irrigated corn yields in Nebraska and Kansas

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts as of August 30

September 1, 2017
Forecasts for end-of-season corn yields improved across much of the Corn Belt since the early August forecast. View crop stage and yield forecasts as well as weather data. In Nebraska predictions are for near to above average corn yields for most sites, except northeast and northwest sites.

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Probability of yield deviation for normal for irrigated corn, model ran July 18, 2017

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 18

July 19, 2017
Corn growth stages are estimated for 41 sites in 10 states and yields are estimated for select irrigated and rainfed sites, based on the Hybrid-Maize model and input from specialists and educators across a 10-state area as of July 18, 2017. The authors note that these early season yield forecasts vary widely, particularly for rainfed fields, and may change considerably by end of season.

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Locations of 2017 Yield Forecasting Center sites

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results

July 6, 2017
This article discusses data and data collection for the Yield Forecasting Center forecasts of crop phenology and yield for 2017, including a map of the site locations and specific data on crop management and soil types for each site.

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Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)
Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)

Yield Forecast Center Predicts Corn Yields Well Below USDA-NASS Projections

September 22, 2016
End-of-season yield forecasts for irrigated and dryland corn across eight states in the Corn Belt indicate above average yields for 2016, but not the record-breaking yields predicted by USDA in their September forecast. While two states are forecast to have yields below the 10-year average (-1% to -4%), the remaining states showed above average yields ranging from 1% to 21% above the 10-year average.

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Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.
Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.

Corn Yield Forecasts as of Sept. 7

September 8, 2016
The Sept. 7 corn yield forecasts show a majority of the irrigated sites expected to produce above normal, but not record-breaking yields. Forecasted yields for rainfed sites are more variable, although most are expected to be near normal. Above average yields are expected for 11 of the 37 sites studied and below-normal yields are forecast for five sites.

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Map of corn yield deviation from long-term averages

Corn Yield Forecasts for Aug. 24, Including State Forecasts

August 25, 2016
August 24 corn yield forecasts for 41 sites across the Corn Belt showed many near or above average. At Nebraska rainfed corn sites there is a high probability (>75%) of above-average yield at the North Platte and central east sites and a high probability (>75%) of below-average yield at the southwestern and southeastern Nebraska sites (McCook, Clay Center, and Beatrice). In irrigated corn there was a high probability of near or above average yields for all except the Beatrice site. See the story for data tables and discussion.

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