2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 23

2024 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 23

Simulations of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage were performed on July 23 for 43 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. This article summarizes the simulated crop stages and yield forecasts; the data can be viewed in Table 1. Details on the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model and the underpinning methodology to simulate phenology and forecast end-of-season yields, as well as on interpretation and uses of yield forecasts, are described in a previous article.

A summary of weather conditions during the last 60 days (from May 23 to July 22) is shown in Figure 1. The season began with near-average temperatures in the central Corn Belt, while daytime temperatures were below normal in the northwestern fringe of the region (ND and MN). Total rainfall was near the historical average at most sites. However, consistent with drought monitor reports, rainfall was below average in western NE and parts of KS and OH, and above average in southern MN, northern IA and eastern NE.

Graph of 2023 daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, total rainfall
Figure 1. Daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), total rainfall, and total reference grass-based evapotranspiration (ET) for the time period between May 23 and July 22, 2024. Vertical bars indicate the range for these variables based on 20-plus years of weather records. The horizontal thick line indicates the long-term average, and the red dots indicate the 2024 values for the same period.

Table 1. Data from simulations of 2024 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on July 23.
LocationWater regimeLong-term average yield (bu/ac) §Range of Yp forecasts as of Jul 23 (bu/ac)¶ 25thRange of Yp forecasts as of Jul 23 (bu/ac)¶ 75thProbability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2024 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)†Simulated current crop stage*
NE Alliance Irrigated 230 233 268 3% 37% 60% R2, Blister
Beatrice Dryland 183 170 205 18% 50% 32% R3, Milk
Irrigated 241 234 259 15% 50% 35% R3, Milk
Clay Center Dryland 186 214 240 0% 7% 93% R2, Blister
Irrigated 258 241 267 33% 43% 24% R2, Blister
Concord Dryland 201 199 260 12% 29% 60% R2, Blister
Irrigated 268 253 290 29% 33% 38% R2, Blister
Elgin Irrigated 268 239 279 47% 36% 17% R2, Blister
Holdrege Dryland 143 146 161 0% 69% 31% R3, Milk
Irrigated 257 234 260 47% 33% 19% R2, Blister
McCook Dryland 119 75 114 67% 24% 10% R3, Milk
Irrigated 238 217 245 45% 36% 19% R3, Milk
Mead Dryland 206 226 248 0% 31% 69% R3, Milk
Irrigated 247 244 264 17% 50% 33% R3, Milk
North Platte Dryland 131 75 122 71% 14% 14% R2, Blister
Irrigated 256 238 291 29% 24% 48% R2, Blister
O'Neill Irrigated 247 235 268 26% 36% 38% R2, Blister
IA Ames Dryland 248 210 249 36% 50% 14% R2, Blister
Crawfordsville Dryland 238 239 257 3% 79% 18% R3, Milk
Kanawha Dryland 256 249 268 0% 88% 12% R2, Blister
Lewis Dryland 221 231 265 12% 19% 69% R2, Blister
Nashua Dryland 257 254 279 6% 77% 17% R1, Silking
Sutherland Dryland 245 244 269 6% 69% 26% R2, Blister
IL Bondville Dryland 252 249 275 0% 81% 19% R3, Milk
Freeport Dryland 242 233 261 3% 76% 21% R2, Blister
Olney Dryland 210 209 237 9% 53% 38% R3, Milk
Peoria Dryland 228 225 255 0% 65% 35% R3, Milk
Springfield Dryland 216 196 240 25% 42% 33% R3, Milk
IN Butlerville Dryland 237 216 251 14% 71% 14% R3, Milk
Columbia City Dryland 250 258 287 0% 43% 57% R1, Silking
Davis Dryland 257 253 266 5% 90% 5% R2, Blister
West Lafayette Dryland 254 251 265 5% 76% 19% R3, Milk
KS Garden City Irrigated 237 214 240 53% 42% 5% R4, Dough
Hutchinson Dryland 118 81 91 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Manhattan Dryland 158 175 194 0% 23% 77% R4, Dough
Scandia Dryland 158 127 166 50% 39% 11% R4, Dough
Irrigated 234 221 247 29% 45% 26% R3, Milk
Silverlake Dryland 162 175 188 0% 42% 58% R4, Dough
Irrigated 218 210 229 18% 47% 34% R4, Dough
MI Ceresco Dryland 231 239 266 0% 43% 57% R1, Silking
East Lansing Dryland 236 238 264 0% 61% 39% R1, Silking
Munger Dryland 245 241 276 0% 58% 42% R1, Silking
MN Eldred Dryland 162 145 179 29% 46% 25% V10
Lamberton Dryland 245 254 272 0% 67% 33% R2, Blister
Waseca Dryland 246 250 279 2% 57% 41% R1, Silking
MO Brunswick Dryland 194 210 227 0% 33% 67% R4, Dough
Monroe City Dryland 191 180 227 17% 30% 52% R4, Dough
St. Joseph Dryland 187 216 236 0% 4% 96% R4, Dough
ND Dazey Dryland 164 139 174 41% 41% 17% V8
OH Custar Dryland 231 218 239 15% 74% 10% R3, Milk
South Charleston Dryland 235 192 231 53% 44% 3% R3, Milk
Wooster Dryland 236 236 264 5% 59% 36% R1, Silking

§ Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2024 potential yields based on average planting date in 2024, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2024 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location; or <-5%, ±5%, and >5% at each irrigated location, respectively.

Simulated Corn Stage Across 43 Locations

Corn has reached the silking stage at all sites except for the northwestern fringe of the region (ND and northern MN), where it is still in vegetative phases (Figure 2). Additionally, most sites in the southern part of the Corn Belt have reached the milk stage (central and southern IL, southern NE, and western and southern IN and OH) or even the dough stage (KS and MO).

Figure 2. Simulated developmental stage for irrigated and rainfed corn at each location. Vn: vegetative stage (nth leaf); R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough; R5: dent. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).

Irrigated Corn: High Probability of Near-average Yields

The range of forecasted irrigated corn yield potential for each location, as well as the probabilities for yields above, near, or below average, are shown in Figures 3 and 4. Although it is still early in the season, there is a relatively high probability of near-average yields for most irrigated sites, with above-average yields more likely in western NE. Weather conditions during the grain filling will ultimately determine if most irrigated sites achieve near-average yields.

Variation in 2024 Forecasted Rainfed Corn Yield

Forecasted yield potential is variable across rainfed sites (Figures 3 and 4). Overall, at this point of the season, the probability of near-average yields is relatively high in the northern, central, and eastern fringe of the Corn Belt (ND, MN, IA, IL, IN, MI and OH). Indeed, there is a high probability of near-average yields (>75%) in eight sites, which is consistent with USDA NASS crop reports.

Conversely, the probability of above-average yields increases towards the west and southwest of the Corn Belt (southwestern IA, southern and eastern NE, eastern KS, and MO). Finally, the western fringe of the region (western NE and southern KS) exhibits a high probability of below-average yields. Whether these trends persist will depend on precipitation and temperature patterns during the rest of July and early August.

Figure 3. Vertical lines indicate the range of forecasted 2024 corn yield potential by July 23 based on average planting date in 2024 at each location. Horizontal lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles of the yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). The blue squares indicate the long-term (2005-2023) average yield potential at each location. Separate charts are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).
Figure 4. Probability of the 2024 yield potential to be below (at least 10% below for rainfed sites or 5% for irrigated sites, red color), near (± 10% for rainfed sites or ± 5% for irrigated sites, yellow color), and above (at least 10% above for rainfed sites or 5% above for irrigated sites, green color) the long-term (2005-2023) average yield potential at each location. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom). The larger a color section is within the pie chart, the higher the probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category.

Conclusions

Corn has reached reproductive stages throughout most of the region. While it is still early to make strong inferences about end-of-season yields for irrigated corn, there is a relatively high probability of near-average yields for most sites, but this could change depending on temperatures during the next weeks.

For rainfed corn, the scenario is diverse across regions, with near-average yields likely in the northern, central and eastern regions of the Corn Belt. However, above-average yields are expected in southern and eastern NE, eastern KS and MO, whereas limited rainfall is leading to below-average yields in western NE and southern KS.

Temperature and rainfall through the end of July and early August will be crucial in determining whether these projections persist.

These forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here.

It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average yield potential for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop stages and forecasted yields will deviate from the ones reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from those used as the basis for the forecasts. We will follow up with further forecasts in early August.

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A field of corn.