Don’t Fool Yourself: Grain Marketing Trends and Making Your Best Choices
Nebraska producers can hone their skills and strategies for grain marketing with a recent seminar presented by the Center for Ag Profitability.
Featuring Nebraska Extension Agricultural Economist Matt Stockton, and Cory Walters, grain marketing specialist, the webinar focuses on current market forces and common tendencies of decision-makers as they consider selling this year’s corn crop. The discussion extends to the difference between perceiving the market as it truly is, versus how we want it to be, and how cognitive anchoring can impact your market expectations for the year.
It delves into the relationship between last year's prices and their impact on this year and examines the predictive power of traditional market signs and how perspectives can alter actions. It also explores the potential for biased tendencies in grain marketing and shares strategies to effectively use existing knowledge for maximum advantage.
The concept of the Gambler’s Fallacy is addressed, and experts explore the effect of negative outcomes on your willingness to participate in the market. This year may witness the manifestation of the Dunning-Kruger effect, which we also discuss.
By the end of the webinar, you will have acquired a stronger decision-making capability, having learned to recognize and account for natural heuristic traps that are inherent to us all.