2022 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 19

2022 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 19

Simulations of 2022 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage were performed on July 19 for 40 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities. This article summarizes the simulated crop stages and yield forecasts; the data can be found in Table 1. Details on the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model and the underpinning methodology to simulate phenology and forecast end-of-season yields, as well as on interpretation and uses of yield forecasts, are described in a previous article.

A summary of weather conditions during the last 60 days (from May 19 to July 18) is shown in Figure 1. The season started with warm conditions throughout a large portion of the Corn Belt, showing average temperatures above normal in most sites in NE, IA, IL, IN, OH and southern KS and MN. In northern areas (ND, MI and north of IL, MN and IN), as well as in MO and northern KS, temperature was near the historical average. In addition, most of the western and northwestern regions (NE, IA, MN and ND) exhibited below normal rainfall. Remaining sites showed near normal rainfall, except for OH and a few scattered locations in IL, IN and MO with rainfall above normal.

Graph of 2022 daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, total rainfall
Figure 1. Daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), total rainfall, and total reference grass-based evapotranspiration (ET) for the time period between May 19 and July 18, 2022. Vertical bars indicate the range for these variables based on 20-plus years of weather records. The horizontal thick line indicates the long-term average, and the red dots indicate the 2022 values for the same period.

Table 1. Data from simulations of 2022 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on July 19.
LocationWater regimeLong-term average yield (bu/ac) §Range of Yp forecasts as of Jul 19 (bu/ac)¶ 25thRange of Yp forecasts as of Jul 19 (bu/ac)¶ 75thProbability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)†Simulated current crop stage*
NE Alliance Irrigated 193 193 221 0% 55% 45% V14
Beatrice Dryland 161 158 179 22% 50% 28% R2, Blister
Irrigated 230 198 223 47% 47% 6% R2, Blister
Clay Center Dryland 157 86 142 72% 28% 0% R2, Blister
Irrigated 245 223 241 22% 72% 5% R2, Blister
Concord Dryland 174 117 179 58% 28% 15% R1, Silking
Irrigated 249 229 263 20% 65% 15% R1, Silking
Elgin Irrigated 252 236 266 15% 74% 12% R1, Silking
Holdrege Dryland 113 83 128 41% 24% 35% R2, Blister
Irrigated 242 229 257 15% 68% 18% R1, Silking
McCook Dryland 88 38 79 75% 22% 2% R2, Blister
Irrigated 225 196 222 30% 60% 10% R2, Blister
Mead Dryland 182 138 182 52% 42% 5% R1, Silking
Irrigated 235 210 233 32% 60% 8% R2, Blister
North Platte Dryland 90 45 101 60% 12% 28% R1, Silking
Irrigated 234 227 254 8% 72% 20% R1, Silking
O'Neill Irrigated 227 210 244 19% 62% 19% R1, Silking
IA Ames Dryland 229 200 239 32% 53% 15% V16
Crawfordsville Dryland 230 166 191 84% 16% 0% R1, Silking
Lewis Dryland 209 175 223 42% 33% 25% V18
Nashua Dryland 228 223 249 9% 67% 24% V14
Sutherland Dryland 210 178 210 42% 48% 9% V16
IL Bondville Dryland 235 205 239 33% 57% 10% R1, Silking
Freeport Dryland 212 201 251 16% 47% 38% V16
Olney Dryland 190 197 223 0% 44% 56% R2, Blister
Peoria Dryland 211 187 216 34% 52% 14% R1, Silking
Springfield Dryland 179 212 237 0% 14% 86% R1, Silking
IN Butlerville Dryland 224 202 227 26% 68% 5% R1, Silking
Columbia City Dryland 224 219 241 0% 79% 21% V16
Davis Dryland 231 225 246 0% 89% 11% V18
West Lafayette Dryland 238 201 226 53% 47% 0% V18
KS Garden City Irrigated 218 193 219 33% 61% 6% R3, Milk
Hutchinson Dryland 100 51 69 97% 3% 0% R4, Dough
Manhattan Dryland 136 145 168 3% 38% 59% R3, Milk
Scandia Dryland 131 75 138 64% 17% 19% R1, Silking
Irrigated 226 210 250 6% 64% 31% R1, Silking
Silverlake Dryland 141 124 170 28% 33% 39% R3, Milk
Irrigated 209 196 230 19% 56% 25% R3, Milk
MI Ceresco Dryland 180 174 221 5% 33% 62% V10
MN Eldred Dryland 115 108 148 23% 15% 62% V10
Lamberton Dryland 212 194 229 16% 68% 16% V16
Waseca Dryland 219 205 250 19% 43% 38% V14
MO Brunswick Dryland 181 169 202 23% 41% 36% R1, Silking
Monroe City Dryland 174 177 221 14% 24% 62% R1, Silking
St. Joseph Dryland 167 188 218 5% 14% 82% R1, Silking
ND Dazey Dryland 109 118 162 7% 22% 70% V8
OH Custar Dryland 208 199 230 11% 57% 32% V12
South Charleston Dryland 216 220 261 3% 44% 53% V16
Wooster Dryland 210 192 229 19% 62% 19% V10

§Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2022 potential yields based on average planting date in 2022, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2022 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location.

Simulated Corn Stage Across 40 Locations

Corn has reached silking in the southern fringe of the Corn Belt, including NE, KS, MO, most sites in IL, and southeast of IA and IN. In contrast, sites in the northern and eastern fringes of the region are still in vegetative phases (ND, MN, most of IA, northern IL, IN, MI and OH) (Figure 2). Due to the later planting date this season, most locations in these northern and eastern sites are running behind last year’s corn development.

Figure 2. Simulated developmental stage for irrigated and rainfed corn at each location. Vn: vegetative stage (nth leaf); R1: silking; R2: blister; R3: milk; R4: dough. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).

Irrigated Corn: High Probability of Near-average Yields

The range of forecasted irrigated corn yield potential for each location, as well as the probabilities for yields above, near or below average, are shown in Figures 3 and 4. Although it is still too early in the season, there is a relatively high probability of near-average yields for all sites. Weather conditions during the rest of the growing season will determine if most irrigated sites will have near-average yield potential.

Variable 2022 Forecasted Corn Yield Across Rainfed Locations

Forecasted yield potential is highly variable across rainfed sites (Figures 3 and 4). At this point of the season, probability of near-average yield is relatively high in IA, MN and towards the eastern fringe of the Corn Belt (IL, IN and OH). In contrast, below-average yields probability increases in IA, NE and KS due to a combination of high temperature, which increases crop water requirements, and low rainfall, with larger negative impact on yield at sites without presence of shallow water tables during the growing season. However, current yield forecasts are highly uncertain and may change depending on precipitation and temperature during the rest of July and August. There is a high probability of below-average yield (>75%) only at three sites (southeast IA, southwest NE and southern KS), while there are only two sites where probability of above-average yield is high (northwest MO and southcentral IL).

Figure 3. Vertical lines indicate the range of forecasted 2022 corn yield potential by July 19 based on average planting date in 2022 at each location. Horizontal lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles of the yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). The blue squares indicate the long-term (2005-2021) average yield potential at each location. Separate charts are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).
Figure 4. Probability of the 2022 yield potential to be below (<10%, red color), near (±10%, yellow color), and above (>10%, green color) the long-term (2005-2021) average yield potential at each location. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom). The larger a color section is within the pie chart, the higher the probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category.

Conclusions

Corn has reached silk stage in the west and southern fringes of the Corn Belt, while it is still in vegetative stages throughout the north, eastern and most of central parts of the region. Although it is still too early to make strong inferences about end-of-season yields for irrigated corn, there is a relatively high probability for near-average yields for a majority of sites, but this can change depending upon temperature during the next four weeks.

For rainfed corn, the scenario is diverse across regions, with higher probability of near-average yields in the eastern fringe of the region and below-average yields in the western area due to a combination of below average rainfall and high daytime temperature during the past two months. Temperature and rainfall during the rest of July and early August will likely define the trend for all sites across the region.

These forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here. It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and instead represent an estimate of average on-farm yield for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop stages and forecasted yields will deviate from the ones reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from those used as the basis for the forecasts. We will follow up with further forecasts in early August.

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A field of corn.