2022 Corn Yield Forecasts: End-of-season Forecasts Suggest Below-average Yields for the Region

2022 Corn Yield Forecasts: End-of-season Forecasts Suggest Below-average Yields for the Region

This is the last article in a series that summarizes the simulated crop stages and yield forecasts across the Corn Belt. To evaluate, in “real-time,” the impact of this season’s weather on corn yield and its spatial variability across the Corn Belt, simulations of 2022 real-time crop stage were performed for 40 locations across the US Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model; the data can be seen in Table 1. Details on the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model and the underpinning methodology to simulate phenology and forecast end-of-season yields is described in a previous article.

Weather conditions summary chart
Figure 1. Daily solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin), total rainfall, and total reference grass-based evapotranspiration (ET) for the time period between Aug. 16 and Sept. 13, 2022. Vertical bars indicate the range for these variables based on 20-plus years of weather records. The horizontal thick line indicates the long-term average and the red dots indicate the 2022 values.
Table 1. Data from simulations of 2022 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on Sept. 14.
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LocationWater regimeLong-term average yield (bu/ac) §Range of Yp forecasts as of Sept. 14 (bu/ac)¶ 25thRange of Yp forecasts as of Sept. 14 (bu/ac)¶ 75thProbability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Below (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Near (relative to the long-term Yp)†Probability (%) of 2022 yield to be: Above (relative to the long-term Yp)†Simulated current crop stage*
NE Alliance Irrigated 193 Black layer on Aug. 30. Final yield: 183 bu/ac Matured
Beatrice Dryland 161 Black layer on Aug. 23. Final yield: 113 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 230 Black layer on Aug. 27. Final yield: 199 bu/ac Matured
Clay Center Dryland 157 Black layer on Aug. 27. Final yield: 71 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 245 Black layer on Sept. 2. Final yield: 233 bu/ac Matured
Concord Dryland 174 Black layer on Aug. 30. Final yield: 106 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 249 Black layer on Sept. 6. Final yield: 236 bu/ac Matured
Elgin Irrigated 252 Black layer on Sept. 8. Final yield: 239 bu/ac Matured
Holdrege Dryland 113 Black layer on Aug. 25. Final yield: 89 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 242 Black layer on Aug. 31. Final yield: 225 bu/ac Matured
McCook Dryland 88 Black layer on Aug. 18. Final yield: 35 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 225 Black layer on Aug. 20. Final yield: 191 bu/ac Matured
Mead Dryland 182 Black layer on Aug. 30. Final yield: 130 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 235 Black layer on Aug. 30. Final yield: 215 bu/ac Matured
North Platte Dryland 90 Black layer on Aug. 27. Final yield: 51 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 234 Black layer on Aug. 31. Final yield: 221 bu/ac Matured
O'Neill Irrigated 227 Black layer on Aug. 29. Final yield: 174 bu/ac Matured
IA Ames Dryland 229 Black layer on Sept. 10. Final yield: 198 bu/ac Matured
Crawfordsville Dryland 230 Black layer on Aug. 29. Final yield: 135 bu/ac Matured
Lewis Dryland 209 Black layer on Sept. 4. Final yield: 140 bu/ac Matured
Nashua Dryland 228 247 263 0% 39% 61% R5, Dent
Sutherland Dryland 210 Black layer on Sept. 5. Final yield: 150 bu/ac Matured
IL Bondville Dryland 235 230 234 0% 100% 0% R6, Black layer
Freeport Dryland 212 237 243 0% 9% 91% R5, Dent
Olney Dryland 190 Black layer on Aug. 27. Final yield: 209 bu/ac Matured
Peoria Dryland 211 Black layer on Sept. 7. Final yield: 235 bu/ac Matured
Springfield Dryland 179 Black layer on Sept. 1. Final yield: 242 bu/ac Matured
IN Butlerville Dryland 224 Black layer on Sept. 8. Final yield: 221 bu/ac Matured
Columbia City Dryland 224 242 252 0% 53% 47% R5, Dent
Davis Dryland 231 229 235 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
West Lafayette Dryland 238 217 225 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
KS Garden City Irrigated 218 Black layer on Aug. 15. Final yield: 178 bu/ac Matured
Hutchinson Dryland 100 Black layer on Aug. 2. Final yield: 61 bu/ac Matured
Manhattan Dryland 136 Black layer on Aug. 13. Final yield: 156 bu/ac Matured
Scandia Dryland 131 Black layer on Aug. 31. Final yield: 83 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 226 Black layer on Sept. 5. Final yield: 249 bu/ac Matured
Silverlake Dryland 141 Black layer on Aug. 15. Final yield: 144 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 209 Black layer on Aug. 21. Final yield: 218 bu/ac Matured
MI Ceresco Dryland 180 181 200 0% 67% 33% R4, Dough
MN Eldred Dryland 115 80 84 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Lamberton Dryland 212 203 213 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Waseca Dryland 219 259 277 0% 2% 98% R5, Dent
MO Brunswick Dryland 181 Black layer on Sept. 6. Final yield: 182 bu/ac Matured
Monroe City Dryland 174 Black layer on Sept. 6. Final yield: 216 bu/ac Matured
St. Joseph Dryland 167 Black layer on Sept. 2. Final yield: 215 bu/ac Matured
ND Dazey Dryland 109 79 84 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
OH Custar Dryland 208 223 246 0% 46% 54% R5, Dent
South Charleston Dryland 216 240 250 0% 16% 84% R5, Dent
Wooster Dryland 210 207 237 0% 62% 38% R5, Dent

§Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2022 potential yields based on average planting date in 2022, indicating the potential yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2022 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each location.

Crop Stages and Weather Conditions During the Last Four Weeks

Corn has reached black layer at all irrigated sites and at most of rainfed locations of the Corn Belt, except for those situated along the north and eastern fringes of the region (Figure 2).

During the last four weeks, most sites across the Corn Belt exhibited near-normal temperature, although above-normal daily temperatures were registered in the western (NE and KS) and northern (ND) states.

While sites in the eastern fringe of the Corn Belt (OH, IN, IL) exhibited near-normal rainfall, the majority of locations had below-normal rainfall. A summary of weather conditions during the past three weeks is shown in Figure 1.

Figure 2. Simulated developmental stage for irrigated and rainfed corn at each location. R4: dough; R5: dent; physiological maturity: matured. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).

Near but Below Average Yields in Irrigated Corn

Forecasted end-of-season irrigated yields are shown in Figure 3 and 4. Four sites (out of 13) exhibited below-average yields (that is with a difference >10%). Compared with our previous forecast, above-average temperature during the past four weeks in NE further reduced the forecasted yield for 2022. Expected yields in NE are consistently lower than historical average, with an average difference of 10%. Overall, the irrigated maize yield potential forecasted for the current 2022 season is 5% lower, on average, compared to that in the previous (2021) season.

Rainfed Corn: Yield Potential is Highly Variable Across Rainfed Sites

Forecasted end-of-season yields for rainfed corn indicate above-average yields at only 22% (eight out of 36) of the sites, and these were distributed in the southern fringe of the region (eastern KS and MO), western IL, southern OH and southeastern MN (Figure 3 and 4).

In contrast, 42% of the sites (15 out of 36) exhibited below-average yields. These sites with below-average yield were located in NE, ND, most of IA, central KS and northern MN.

The remaining 13 sites, mostly located in the eastern part of the Corn Belt (eastern IL, IN and OH), showed a high probability of near-average yield.

Overall, this year’s scenario looks similar to last year’s forecast but 9% lower than the long-term average. Compared to the 2021 season, one-third of the rainfed sites exhibited a decrease in yield potential that was larger than 5%, especially at sites in NE, IA and KS. Another one-third of the sites improved yields by at least 5%, compared with the 2021 season, especially in MO, OH, IN, MN and ND.

Figure 3. Vertical lines indicate the range of forecasted 2022 corn yield potential by Sept. 14 based on average 2022 planting date at each location. Horizontal lines indicate the 25th and 75th percentiles of the yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). The blue squares indicate the long-term average yield potential at each location and the red dots represent the forecasted 2022 corn yield potential at sites that have already reached maturity. Separate charts are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom).
Figure 4. Probability of the 2022 yield potential to be below (<10%, red color), near (± 10%, yellow color), and above (>10%, green color) the long-term average yield potential at each location. Separate maps are shown for irrigated corn (top) and rainfed corn (bottom). The larger a color section is within the pie chart, the higher the probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category.

Conclusions

Our forecasted yield potential this season seems to be almost 10% below the historical average for both rainfed and irrigated corn overall. The USDA also forecasts that 2022 corn yield will be lower than that predicted from the long-term historical trend.

Our forecast suggests a near but below-average year for most irrigated sites, although one-third of them can expect yields to be well below (>10%) the historical average.

For rainfed corn, the scenario is diverse across regions. Most sites in the eastern part of the Corn Belt have a high probability of near-average yields. Above-average yield is expected at eight locations in eastern KS, MO, western IL, southern OH and southeastern MN. In contrast, 13 sites located in northern and western fringes of the Corn Belt and IA exhibit a high probability of below-average yields.

Note that these forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here.

It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average on-farm yield for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop stages and forecasted yields will deviate from those reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from those used as the basis for these forecasts.

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