Key Takeaways

• Crop stages: Corn has entered reproductive stages across most of the U.S. Corn Belt, with silking underway at most locations.

• Irrigated outlook: Near-average yields remain the most likely outcome across much of the Corn Belt, except in southeastern Nebraska.

• Rainfed outlook: Near-average yields are forecast across much of the central and eastern Corn Belt, while Nebraska is expected to trend below average.

• Weather watch: Weather through late July and early August will be critical in determining end-of-season yield potential.

Corn across much of the U.S. Corn Belt has entered the reproductive growth stages, making weather conditions during the coming weeks increasingly important for determining end-of-season yield potential. This latest Hybrid-Maize forecast provides an early look at crop development and simulated yield potential across 43 locations as of July 14.

Simulations of corn growth and end-of-season yield potential were completed on July 14 for 43 locations across the U.S. Corn Belt using the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and Extension educators from 10 universities. Simulated crop stages and yield forecasts for each location are provided in Table 1.

For readers interested in the forecasting methodology, a previous CropWatch article explains the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model, how the forecasts are generated and how to interpret the results. 

Weather conditions across the Corn Belt have generally supported average yield potential, though regional differences in rainfall continue to shape the outlook. A summary of weather conditions during the last 60 days (May 14-July 13) is shown in Figure 1. The season began with above-average _­temperatures in the central region, while nighttime temperatures were above average throughout the entire Corn Belt. The largest anomaly was observed in Nebraska, where nighttime temperature was, on average, 3.2°F above normal. Total rainfall was near or above the historical average at most sites. However, consistent with drought monitor reports, rainfall was below average in most of Nebraska, northern Minnesota, and western Ohio.

^§Long-term (last 20-plus years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.

^¶ Range of forecasted 2026 potential yields based on average planting date in 2026, indicating the potential yields in the 25^th and 75^th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).

^† Probability of obtaining a 2025 yield below (<10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) than the long-term potential yield at each dryland or irrigated (<5%; ±5%; >5%) location.

Simulated Corn Stage Across 43 Locations

Corn has reached the silking stage except for the northwestern (North Dakota and northern Minnesota) and eastern fringes of the region (Michigan and parts of Indiana and Ohio), where it is still in vegetative phases (Figure 2a and 2b). Additionally, most sites in the south-central and southwestern areas of the Corn Belt have reached the blister stage (Missouri and southern Illinois, Nebraska, and Iowa) or even the milk stage (Kansas). At this point, crop development is similar to last year’s, except for the eastern states where it is running slightly behind.

Irrigated Corn: High Probability of Near-Average Yields

The range of forecasted irrigated corn yield potential for each location, as well as the probabilities for yields above, near, or below average, are shown in Figures 3 and 4. Although it is still early in the season, the most likely outcome is near-average yield by the end of the season. However, there is a relatively high likelihood of below-average yields in southeastern Nebraska. Weather conditions during grain filling will ultimately determine whether most irrigated sites achieve near-average yields.

Rainfed Corn: Near- to Below-Average Yields Expected 

Forecasted yield potential appears to be near average across most sites within the Corn Belt, except for Nebraska where below-average yields are expected overall (Figures 3 and 4). At this point in the season, near-average yields are most likely from central to the eastern fringe of the region (southern Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio). There is a high probability of near-average yields (greater than 75%) at 10 sites within that area, which is consistent with USDA NASS crop reports. 

Conversely, the probability of below-average yields increases toward the western fringe of the Corn Belt (Nebraska). 

The prospect of above-average yields appears to be low across most of the Corn Belt, except for a few scattered sites in Kansas, North Dakota and the eastern states. 

Whether these trends persist will depend on precipitation and temperature patterns during the remainder of July and early August. 

Conclusions

Corn has reached reproductive stages throughout most of the region. While it is still early to make strong inferences about end-of-season yields for irrigated corn, there is a relatively high probability of near-average yields except for southeastern Nebraska, where above-normal nighttime temperatures predominated. 

For rainfed corn, the scenario is diverse across regions, with near-average yields likely in the central and eastern regions of the Corn Belt. However, below-average yields are expected in Nebraska, driven by below-average rainfall. 

Temperature and rainfall through the end of July and early August will be crucial in determining whether these projections persist. 

These forecasts do not take into consideration problems with stand emergence, hail/flooding damage, replanting situations, disease or nitrate leaching. In fields negatively affected by these constraints, actual yields will be lower than estimates provided here. 

It is important to keep in mind that yield forecasts are not field specific and, instead, represent an estimate of average yield potential for a given location and surrounding area in absence of the yield-reducing factors mentioned here. Likewise, crop stages and forecasted yields will deviate from those reported here in fields with planting dates or hybrid maturities that differ markedly from those used as the basis for the forecasts. 

We will follow up with further forecasts in early August.