Key Takeaways
Canal water availability matters more than drought alone — In 2012, near-normal delivery supported strong yields despite dry weather.
2002 shows the risk of limited delivery — When canal water was short, yields dropped sharply across multiple crops.
Sugar beet is most vulnerable to early water stress — Reduced early-season delivery had the largest impact on beet yields.
Groundwater-reliant areas were less affected — Counties with less dependence on canal water saw smaller yield declines.
2026 conditions resemble 2002 so far — Projected limited delivery increases the risk of yield impacts without careful management.
Not all drought years are alike. Looking back at recent drought years in the Nebraska Panhandle — 2002 and 2012 — the yield outcomes for irrigated corn, dry beans and sugar beet were very different. 2002 featured dry weather and short canal delivery, while 2012 2012 had similarly dry conditions but near-normal delivery on the North Platte system. 2026, so far, looks much more like 2002 than 2012 — making this historical yield comparison especially relevant.
This is Part 2 of a four-part CropWatch series recapping the April 8, 2026 Yonts Water Conference. Part 1 laid out the 2026 weather, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil-moisture picture. Here, yield data from USDA NASS (corn, dry beans) and Western Sugar Cooperative (sugar beet) are used to compare outcomes in 2002 (severe drought and severely reduced canal water), 2009 (wet-year benchmark with full delivery), and 2012 (dry weather but essentially full canal delivery) across four Panhandle counties: Box Butte, Morrill, Scotts Bluff and Sheridan. Morrill and Scotts Bluff rely more heavily on surface-water delivery; Box Butte and Sheridan are mostly irrigated by groundwater.
Note: USDA NASS county average yields do not distinguish between groundwater and surface-water irrigation, and chickpea is sometimes counted as "dry bean." The numbers below should be used for directional year-to-year comparison rather than precise estimates of groundwater- or surface-water-based production.
Irrigated Corn Yields by County
USDA NASS survey data for irrigated corn in the four Panhandle counties (Table 1) show that in 2012, despite it being the drier weather year, irrigated corn yields were close to 2009 levels. In 2002, by contrast, irrigated yields dropped sharply — particularly in Scotts Bluff County (27% less than 2009), which depends heavily on canal water.
County | 2002 (bu/ac) | 2009 (bu/ac) | 2012 (bu/ac) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Box Butte | 145.5 | 153.3 | 141.7 |
| Morrill | 141.8 | 156.7 | 151.4 |
| Scotts Bluff | 119.7 | 163.1 | 149.0 |
| Sheridan | 143.6 | 161.0 | 159.8 |
Dry Bean Yields by County
Dry bean yields tell a similar story. 2002 dry bean yields were the lowest across all four counties in this three-year comparison. 2012 dry bean yields were actually the highest — in Sheridan County, 2012 produced 3,040 lb/ac, well above 2009’s 2,250 lb/ac.
County | 2002 (lb/ac) | 2009 (lb/ac) | 2012 (lb/ac) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Box Butte | 1,838 – 1,990 | 2,180 | 2,560 |
| Morrill | 1,880 – 1,950 | 1,920 | 2,160 |
| Scotts Bluff | 1,840 – 1,878 | 2,220 | 2,400 |
| Sheridan | 1,890 – 2,410 | 2,250 | 3,040 |
Sugar Beet Yields by County
The sugar beet numbers make the 2002-versus-2012 contrast even more dramatic. 2002 sugar beet yields averaged around 17-20 tons/ac across the four counties — the lowest on record for this period. 2012 yields, by contrast, averaged 27-32 tons/ac — among the highest on record. Sugar beet has a longer growing season than corn or dry beans and is more sensitive to early-season water stress. Therefore, early water delivery for sugar beet is crucial for proper emergence and crop development. When canal water is limited, early-season water delivery is often reduced.
In 2002, rainfall from April 15 to June 25 totaled just 1.65, 1.06 and 2.20 inches at Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney, respectively.
County | 2002 (ton/ac) | 2009 (ton/ac) | 2012 (ton/ac) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Box Butte | 17.5 | 23.4 | 29.4 |
| Morrill | 17.8 | 24.2 | 28.7 |
| Scotts Bluff | 16.5 | 27.7 | 27.1 |
| Sheridan | 19.9 | 25.4 | 32.1 |
Takeaway for 2026 Planning
The 2002 vs. 2012 comparison shows the importance of canal water to Panhandle crop production: when canal water is available on schedule, even a dry weather year (2012) can deliver close-to-normal yields with proper management. When canal water delivery is short — as in 2002 and projected for 2026 — yield impacts are substantial, with sugar beet the most exposed of the three crops. Part 3 of this series breaks down why, using data from PREEC research plots to show how each crop responds to limited irrigation. Part 4 provides the water-budget worksheet, crop-specific agronomic recommendations, and irrigation-system tips for the 2026 season.
About This Series
This article is part of a four-part CropWatch series recapping "Growing Crops with Limited Water in 2026," presented by Xin Qiao, UNL Biological Systems Engineering associate professor, at the Yonts Water Conference on April 8, 2026. The full series includes:
- Part 1 — How 2026 Compares: Panhandle Precipitation, Reference ET and Pre-Plant Soil Moisture Relative to 2002, 2009 and 2012
- Part 2 — What 2002, 2009 and 2012 Yields Tell Us About Drought Years
- Part 3 — How Corn, Dry Bean, Sugar Beet and Alfalfa Respond to Deficit Irrigation
- Part 4 — Managing the 2026 Season: Pre-Canal Water Budget, Crop Decisions and Irrigation System Tips
References
- USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). County-level crop yield surveys for Box Butte, Morrill, Scotts Bluff, and Sheridan counties, Nebraska. Available at USDA NASS.
- Western Sugar Cooperative. Historical sugar beet yield and sucrose data, 2002, 2009, 2012 (provided courtesy of Western Sugar Cooperative).
