Key Takeaways

• 2026 is tracking drier than recent comparison years — precipitation is below 2002, 2009 and 2012 levels heading into the season.

• Evaporative demand is higher than normal — elevated reference ET signals greater in-season water demand.

• Soil moisture reserves are limited — many fields are entering planting with about 50% or less of a full profile in the top 2 feet.

• Conditions most closely resemble 2002, not 2012 — both weather and surface water supply are constrained.

• Pre-season soil moisture will be critical — deficits must be made up with in-season irrigation or rainfall.

Producers in the western Nebraska Panhandle are entering the 2026 season with a severely constrained surface-water supply and dry soil conditions. This is not the first time growers in the region have faced these conditions — but not all drought years are alike. 

Looking back at the two most commonly cited drought years in recent memory, 2002 was the closest analog to 2026, with both dry weather and shortage on surface water supply; 2012 was very dry, but surface water delivery on the North Platte system was close to normal.

This article — Part 1 of a four-part CropWatch series recapping the April 8, 2026 Yonts Water Conference — lays out where 2026 actually stands. It summarizes annual precipitation, cumulative precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ET) going into the season, and current soil-moisture status at the PREEC research plots so producers can size up their starting conditions before locking in planting decisions.

Annual Rainfall and Reference ET in Key Years

Figure 1 shows 25-plus years of precipitation data from four Nebraska Mesonet/AWDN stations at the Panhandle area. Long-term average annual rainfall was 12.8, 11.4, 11.8, and 13.8 inches, respectively. In 2002, annual precipitation was 36%, 38%, 63% of long-term average at Alliance, Scottsbluff, and Sidney locations, respectively.

Figure 2 shows cumulative rainfall from last October into current year for 2002, 2009, 2012 and 2026. This accounts for potential snowfall in winter/springtime and gives a producer a better idea of where we are in 2026. As shown in the figure, 2026 precipitation from the four weather stations is lower than any of the previous three years.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET) is an integrated parameter that takes into account air temperature, humidity, wind, solar radiation, etc. on evaporative demand. Depending on crop growth stage, the crop water use — or crop ET — is usually a fraction of the reference ET. Higher reference ET normally means warmer temperature, windy days, high solar radiation and as a result, higher water demand. 

Figure 3 shows cumulative reference ET from the previous October into current year. Again, the cumulative reference ET in 2026 has been higher at all four weather stations as compared to the same time in previous years, indicating this year is drier than any of the previous years. 

Note that reference ET assumes evapotranspiration from a healthy, well-watered surface area (alfalfa in this case), it doesn’t mean the actual crop ET.

Current Soil Moisture at PREEC Research Plots

The soil in western Nebraska is mostly Tripp Fine Sandy Loam with water holding capacity of 1.8–2 in/ft of soil. Most of the time, due to irrigation, winter snowfall and spring rain, producers start the season with full soil water profile. This is probably not the case in 2026. 

The PREEC Irrigation and Digital Ag team conducted soil core sampling on April 6, 2026 at 1-foot intervals down to a 4-foot depth and calculated volumetric soil water content (VWC) at corresponding depths. The results confirmed that as of April 6, 2026, growers should not count on a full profile going into planting. Full water holding capacity (top 2 feet) at PREEC is approximately 3.6 to 4.0 inches. Fields that grew sugar beets in 2025 are carrying roughly 1.0 inch of plant-available water in the top 2 feet — a substantial deficit. Fields with no crop in 2025 (fallowed due to hailstorm) have about 0.9 to 2.9 inches in the top 2 feet, depending on residue cover.

In practical terms, most fields are beginning the 2026 season with 50% or less of full profile moisture in the top 2 feet. When canal supply is limited, pre-season soil moisture becomes the single most important reservoir on the farm, and every inch that is missing from the profile has to be made up by in-season irrigation or rainfall.

What This Means for 2026

The conditions heading into 2026 are closer to 2002 than to 2012. In 2002, both canal water delivery and weather failed at the same time; in 2012, weather was dry but canal delivery was close to normal. The yield consequences of those two years were very different — a topic covered in Part 2 of this series, which compares 2002, 2009 and 2012 yields for corn, dry beans and sugar beets across four Panhandle counties. Part 3 lays out how each crop responds to deficit irrigation at the research-plot level, and Part 4 closes with practical management recommendations and a pre-canal water-budget worksheet.

About This Series

This article is part of a four-part CropWatch series recapping "Growing Crops with Limited Water in 2026," presented by Xin Qiao, UNL Biological Systems Engineering associate professor, at the Yonts Water Conference on April 8, 2026. The full series includes:

• Part 1 — How 2026 Compares: Precipitation, ET and Soil Moisture Going Into Planting
• Part 2, coming April 27 — What 2002, 2009 and 2012 Yields Tell Us About Drought Years
• Part 3, coming April 28 — How Corn, Dry Bean, Sugar Beet and Alfalfa Respond to Deficit Irrigation
• Part 4, coming April 29 — Managing the 2026 Season: Pre-Canal Water Budget, Crop Decisions and Irrigation System Tips