Fall Freeze Risk as of early September (Table 1)

Fall Freeze Risk as of early September (Table 1)

Table 1. The odds (%) of an early fall hard freeze (28°F or less), calculated using 2019 GDD accumulations from emergence to August 31 and applying 1981-2010 GDD accumulations from September 1 to the average first hard freeze date. The table (stacked in two parts) shows the odds for four emergence dates. (Source for the hard freeze dates: National Centers for Environmental Information Normals, Means, and Extremes Database). See related story, Freeze Risk Shifts from August Report, for more information.
AVG.
FREEZE
EMERGENCE: 4/29EMERGENCE: 5/13
LOCATION Date 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700
Scottsbluff 5-Oct 0 0 0 50 100 0 0 0 57 100
Ord 10-Oct 0 0 0 0 63 0 0 0 0 70
O’Neill 13-Oct 0 0 0 17 100 0 0 0 60 100
Concord 11-Oct 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 13
Sidney 11-Oct 0 0 37 93 100 0 0 53 100 100
North Platte 12-Oct 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 0 57
York 20-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
West Point 14-Oct 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 7
McCook 18-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Red Cloud 12-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beatrice 21-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AVG.
FREEZE
EMERGENCE: 5/27EMERGENCE: 6/10
LOCATION Date 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700
Scottsbluff 5-Oct 0 0 10 83 100 0 3 67 100 100
Ord 10-Oct 0 0 0 40 100 0 0 63 100 100
O’Neill 13-Oct 0 0 30 90 100 0 37 93 100 100
Concord 11-Oct 0 0 0 10 73 0 0 17 93 100
Sidney 11-Oct 0 7 80 100 100 0 70 100 100 100
North Platte 12-Oct 0 0 0 20 87 0 0 33 97 100
York 20-Oct 0 0 0 0 43 0 0 0 60 100
West Point 14-Oct 0 0 0 6 80 0 0 10 90 100
McCook 18-Oct 0 0 0 0 48 0 0 0 13 77
Red Cloud 12-Oct 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 47 97
Beatrice 21-Oct 0 0 0 0 17 0 0 0 27 83

Average First Fall Hard Freeze (28°F or less)

(Dates were acquired using Useful to Useable GDD Calculator tool.)

The Emergence Date Freeze Occurrence values in Table 1 are derived by using the 30-year normals period (1981-2010) to determine the percentage of time that a freeze occurred before GDD accumulations reached the defined threshold. This was done by determining the GDDs accumulated in 2019 from the listed emergence dates and adding the listed GDDs from August 1 through the average hard freeze date for the 1981-2010 period.

Black numerals signal that 50% or less of the time a freeze would occur. Red signals that freeze criteria was above 50% of the time, with the value listed given the percent of time the event would occur using 2019 data and applying 1981-2010 accumulation to the remaining growing season. Data was provided by the High Plains Climate Center's Applied Climate Information Service.

This table separates the state into three distinct zones: the northern, central, and southern thirds of the state. Stations selected run from west to east for each zone.