Wet Easter
Following Thursday evening’s severe storms, Friday will be much cooler across southwest, central, and eastern Nebraska with temperatures holding in the mid-40s to low 50s with a stiff breeze from the north. Temperatures rebound on Saturday, April 19, albeit to levels that are still below seasonal normals. Scattered showers will be possible Friday morning in northeast Nebraska and early Saturday in southwest Nebraska.
An upper-level low will move into the Central Plains on Easter morning, which should bring a good chance of rain to the eastern half of the state. Current indicators show rain moving into southeast and south-central Nebraska Sunday morning, April 20 and spreading to the north through the early afternoon hours.
How much rain will fall is a bit uncertain but most signals points to it raining and being seasonally cool that afternoon in the eastern half of the state. An inch of moisture is rather likely in the southeast corner of the state and possible as far west as Grand Island and Albion. Much more significant moisture is likely to our southeast. Winds won't be super high on Sunday but there will be a breeze from the north-northwest.
Warmer Temperatures Return
Temperatures should rebound nicely on Monday as upper-level ridging moves overhead with 70s likely statewide. A weaker cold front will move through the state on Tuesday, April 22, which will bring slightly cooler temperatures to the northwestern quadrant of the state. Highs elsewhere should be 75-80°F. Temperatures the remainder of the week look to remain a bit above seasonal normals in the upper 60s to mid-70s. Temperatures are likely to remain mostly above average into early May.
Stormy End of Week?
It does appear that most of the state will remain dry between Monday and Thursday morning, April 24, with the exception of a chance of showers in north-central and eastern Nebraska on Tuesday afternoon with the cold frontal passage. Severe storms do not appear likely at the moment but will be worth watching as time gets closer.
Troughing is expected to be prominent off the west coast by the later portion of next week and may remain a prominent feature in southwestern U.S. through the first part of May. That would lead to southwest upper-level flow, which combined with ridging to the east is favorable for the central U.S. to get moisture. This will lead to chances for showers and storms starting Thursday and it appears that there will be chances on a regular basis through the first few days of May. Evidence of this wet signal comes from the eight– to 14-day CPC outlook, which shows wetter than average favored for a large section of the U.S.
Additional evidence comes from the latest ECMWF weeklies, which shows precipitation being above average during the last part of the month. Severe weather risk will also be present, though it is too early to pinpoint exact times and types.
Drought Update
This moisture would be very welcome across the state and the broader western Corn Belt and Great Plains region. It has been a very dry month so far across this area of the country, with only pockets of the state receiving above average month to date precipitation. Driest spots run from Clay Center up through York and Stromsburg.
The lack of moisture since the blizzard and lower streamflow percentiles led to a broad 1-category decline on the U.S. Drought Monitor across the south-central and eastern section of the state. The percent of state in drought shot from 75% to 90% from last week to this week.
