Weather Outlook through Mid-October

Weather Outlook through Mid-October

NWS map of Nebraska indicating freeze warning

The National Weather Service posted freeze and frost warnings for Saturday morning: freeze warning (dark blue), freeze watch (light blue), frost adv (medium blue), and wind advisory (brown).

How Wet Was It?

The Valley-Omaha National Weather Service Office said the rain storm that moved from southeast to northeast Nebraska over a 12-14 hour period Sept. 30 - Oct. 1 was a one-in-200-year event. Check out the numbers for your area in these reports from the NeRAIN (Nebraska Rainfall Assessment and Information Network) website.

Sept. 29
Sept. 30
Oct. 1
Oct. 2
Oct. 3
Totals (9/29 - 10/3)

The upper air low that moved from the central Rockies into the northern Great Lakes this week brought significant rainfall to parts of Nebraska.  Rainfall totals across the Panhandle generally were 1.50-3.00 inches, with isolated pockets of heavier precipitation.  A stalled surface boundary on Wednesday led to heavy thunderstorm activity from east of Hebron northeast through Omaha.  Rain amounts of 3-8 inches were reported, with the heaviest totals falling from Wilbur to Lincoln.

With the upper air low situated over the northern Great Lakes, very cold temperatures have shifted southward through the northern and central Plains.  Frost and freeze warnings are in place across Nebraska for Saturday morning, with gradual warming expected through the weekend.  Western Nebraska could see high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s by midweek, while eastern Nebraska is expected to remain 5-10 degrees cooler.

Weather models project dry conditions for the western half of the state through next Friday, while eastern Nebraska may see moisture developing by Thursday as remnants of Hurricane Simon off the Baja Peninsula get pulled northeastward into the Central Plains and interact with the development of low pressure over west central Kansas.  The best likelihood for significant moisture will be across southeast Nebraska.

Another potent upper air trough is projected to slide from the northern Rockies into the Central Plains next weekend and has the potential to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms to Nebraska through the Oct. 13.  If the models are correct, upper air ridging will build into the central U.S. beginning Oct. 14 and bring at least five days of dry weather to Nebraska.

Al Dutcher
Extension State Climatologist