Weekly Weather Outlook and Update: June 13, 2024

Weekly Weather Outlook and Update: June 13, 2024

Storms Friday Night

An MCS looks likely to develop along the front range Friday afternoon, June 14 and make its way into western Nebraska during the evening hours, before paying a visit to the eastern two-thirds of the state during the late evening and overnight hours. Severe threat looks lower across eastern Nebraska, but residents of western Nebraska (particularly in southwest and west-central Nebraska) should be prepared for possible hail and high winds. A half-inch to inch of rain would seem fairly likely for most of the state Friday night, with some areas possibly picking up more.

Precipitation outlook June 13-20 map
Figure 1. Projected precipitation totals in the next seven days.
Projected temperature anomalies June 17-22 map
Figure 2. Projected temperature anomalies next week.

Active Weather Next Week

The projected pattern next week places a large ridge in the eastern U.S. and a trough in the northwestern U.S. That will put our region of the country in the "battle zone" between hot and humid and cooler, more pleasant air. With this setup, there are going to be periodic chances for thunderstorms next week. Hard to pinpoint exact timing but suffice to say, this setup would favor not only chances for severe weather but also chances for flooding in the eastern half of the state.

Heaviest precipitation totals in the three- to six-inch range would be most likely in central and northeastern Nebraska, but most areas should get at least one to two inches next week, except for the Panhandle (where we could use that kind of moisture).

This pattern will also keep the southeastern third of the state hot and muggy until mid-week, while residents of western Nebraska can enjoy cooler temperatures AND lower humidity. Next week might be a good excuse to go visit Chadron if you live in the east.

June 11 Drought Monitor map
Figure 3. Latest U.S. Drought Monitor map.

The One Percenters

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor showed further reduction in drought in central Lancaster County, western Cass County, and northern Jefferson County thanks to last Friday evening's deluge. This means the north side of Lincoln is out of drought for the first time since the summer of 2022. It also means that we are down to just 1% of the state being in drought. But there is still one pocket of drought left in northern Cass County and another one in southern Lancaster and eastern Saline County. Maybe precipitation in the next seven to 10 days will be enough to get this area into D0, aka drought purgatory.

There was degradation this week in the Panhandle, thanks to a drier-than-average spring and some signal in VegDRI of pasture stress. This is the area of most immediate concern for additional degradation as we move deeper into the summer.

Apologies for the relative brevity this week; I am on work-related travel. A fuller update will be available next week.

Second Tuesday at 9

Second Tuesday at 9 is a new monthly webinar series by Nebraska Extension, featuring insights on weather conditions across the state of Nebraska and Midwestern region, and updates on the long-range outlook. Participants can also submit weather and climate-related questions for live discussion. To join the next webinar on Tuesday, July 9, register here. For more information, visit the Second Tuesday at 9 site.

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