Weekly Weather Outlook and Update: July 3, 2024

July 3, 2024

Eric Hunt - Agricultural Meteorology and Climate Resilience Extension Educator

Outlook

With the Fourth of July holiday tomorrow, this week's outlook/update will be short. Biggest stories will be chances for storms across the eastern three-fourths of the state in the next 24 hours and then again on Saturday night, July 6 in the eastern half of the state. Severe weather is possible later today (July 3) in the west-central and central sections of the state and in eastern Nebraska on Saturday.

Weather Prediction Center shows most of the state getting between 0.50-1.25 inches over the next week, except in the western Panhandle where minimal precipitation is expected. Only concern is that the WPC may be underestimating precipitation in east-central Nebraska.

Temperatures will be predominantly below seasonal averages statewide for the next few days and will remain below average in eastern Nebraska through the middle of next week. Ideal weather for pollination.

Precipitation July 3-10 outlook map — **Figure 1.** Weather Prediction Center projected precipitation for the next seven days.

Eight- to 14-day temperature outlook map — **Figure 2.** Eight- to 14-day precipitation outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

Eight- to 14-day precipitation outlook map — **Figure 3.** Eight- to 14-day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center.

Moisture and Drought Update

The past two days brought precipitation to much of the state, with most of central and eastern sections in the state getting over an inch. Heaviest precipitation was along the I-80 corridor from Seward to Sarpy counties where 4-7 inches of rain was common. This led to some flash flooding issues and will put additional pressure on the Missouri. Thankfully, this was an area that had not been as wet (in some cases a bit dry in the previous month) so the ground was able to hold more of it than had this occurred further north, where excessive rainfall had occurred in the second half of June.

Soil moisture percentiles are currently over the 70th percentile for most of eastern and north-central Nebraska and in many areas, over the 90th. So, there is no concern for moisture going into pollination this year for most of our major corn/soybean areas. Some of the area along the Kansas border from Hebron to Fairbury, where abnormal dryness is still depicted on the USDM, might be the exception.

Speaking of drought, much of the remaining abnormal dryness (D0) in eastern and south-central on the Drought Monitor was taken out this week. Abnormal dryness was introduced to the area southwest of North Platte, where precipitation has been less reliable the past few months. Soil moisture percentiles also reflect the recent dryness, hence my recommendation for the USDM author to add the D0 status quo in the Panhandle, where a pocket of moderate drought persists.

Soil moisture percentiles map — **Figure 4.** Soil moisture percentiles from SPoRT LIS.

Seven-day total precipitation map — **Figure 5.** Seven-day total precipitation as of July 3.

VegDRI map June 30 — **Figure 6.** VegDRI map for June 30.

Four-inch bare soil temperature map June 2 — **Figure 7.** Four-inch bare soil temperature map for June 2.

NASS Crop Progress Update

Condition ratings for corn came in at 80% good-excellent (G-E) against 4% poor-very poor (P-VP) while soybean checked in again at 78% G-E and 4% P-VP. Sorghum is rated at 84% G-E against 0% P-VP. Winter wheat harvest is progressing ahead of average (13% complete) and checked in at 67% G-E against 8% P-VP. Good yields are anticipated this year. Ninety percent of oats have headed and are rated as 77% G-E and 3% P-VP.

Pasture ratings of the season show 68% G-E against 6% P-VP. That is an improvement in conditions over a week ago. VegDRI continues to depict very good pasture conditions in the northern and eastern Sandhills regions but poorer conditions in parts of the Panhandle, where drought has developed. VegDRI also shows good conditions on crops across much of the state, except in the western Panhandle where VegDRI indicates more severe levels of water stress.