On Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023, at 3 p.m. EST, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release selected tables from the upcoming USDA Agricultural Projections to 2033 report prepared in support of the President’s annual budget process as defined in the Budget Control Act. These tables will include 10-year projections for major U.S. crops and livestock products and will be followed in February 2024 by USDA’s Agricultural Projections to 2033 report that will include a full discussion of the commodity supply and use projections, and projections for farm income and global commodity trade.

These projections, commonly referred to as the “USDA Baseline,” assume that current laws affecting federal spending and revenues remain in place throughout the projection period, and do not attempt to predict global policy or political outcomes, abnormal weather events, or other external shocks that could affect market outcomes. Instead, they reflect USDA’s assessment of how markets would evolve under current conditions, existing laws, and normal weather patterns. Rather than serving as a prediction of the future, they are intended to serve as a neutral benchmark for measuring the effects of proposed legislation or external developments that could have enduring effects on agricultural markets.

These projections use the Oct. 12, 2023, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report as the starting point, and macroeconomic forecasts developed in August 2023.

The data will be simultaneously posted in MS Excel tables to the Office of the Chief Economist’s (OCE) website and will be uploaded to the Economic Research Service’s (ERS) Baseline database at USDA ERS — Agricultural Baseline Database.