Fall Freeze Risk, August 2019 (Table 1)

Fall Freeze Risk, August 2019 (Table 1)

Table 1. The odds (%) of an early fall hard freeze (28°F or less), calculated using 2019 GDD accumulations from emergence to July 31 and applying 1981-2010 GDD average accumulations for August 1 to the average first hard freeze date. The table (stacked in two parts) shows the odds for four emergence dates. (Source for the hard freeze dates: National Centers for Environmental Information Normals, Means, and Extremes Database). See related story, Calculating the Odds of a Hard Freeze, for more information.
AVG.
FREEZE
EMERGENCE: 4/29EMERGENCE: 5/13
LOCATION Date 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700
Scottsbluff 5-Oct 0 0 10 63 100 0 0 30 60 100
Ord 10-Oct 0 0 0 4 50 0 0 4 25 71
O’Neill 13-Oct 0 0 0 17 63 0 0 7 23 70
Concord 11-Oct 0 0 0 0 23 0 0 0 7 50
Sidney 11-Oct 0 0 31 76 100 0 0 48 86 100
North Platte 12-Oct 0 0 3 20 53 0 0 3 33 70
York 20-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
West Point 14-Oct 0 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 33
McCook 18-Oct 0 0 0 4 9 0 0 0 4 17
Red Cloud 12-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Beatrice 21-Oct 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AVG.
FREEZE
EMERGENCE: 5/27EMERGENCE: 6/10
LOCATION Date 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700
Scottsbluff 5-Oct 0 0 60 96 100 3 60 100 100 100
Ord 10-Oct 0 0 4 50 96 0 11 61 100 100
O’Neill 13-Oct 0 0 17 57 96 0 17 63 96 100
Concord 11-Oct 0 0 3 33 87 0 6 53 96 100
Sidney 11-Oct 0 10 67 100 100 5 67 95 100 100
North Platte 12-Oct 0 3 20 53 92 3 20 56 96 100
York 20-Oct 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 30 81
West Point 14-Oct 0 0 0 27 70 0 0 37 83 100
McCook 18-Oct 0 0 4 9 48 0 4 17 52 81
Red Cloud 12-Oct 0 0 0 0 26 0 0 6 57 90
Beatrice 21-Oct 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 20 64

Average first fall hard freeze (28°F or less)

The Emergence Date Freeze Occurrence values in Table 1 are derived by using the 30-year normals period (1981-2010) to determine the percentage of time that a freeze occurred before GDD accumulations reaching the defined threshold. This was done by determining the GDDs accumulated in 2019 from the listed emergence dates and adding the GDDs from August 1 through the average hard freeze date for the 1981-2010 period.

Black numerals signal that 50% or less of the time a freeze would occur. Red signals that freeze criteria would be meant more than 50% of the time. The values listed are the percent of the time it would have occurred. Data was provided by the High Plains Climate Center's Applied Climate Information Service.

This table separates the state into three distinct zones: the northern, central, and southern thirds of the state. Stations selected run from west to east for each zone.