July 31, 2018 Corn Yield Forecast: Table 1

July 31, 2018 Corn Yield Forecast: Table 1 August 2, 2018

Table 1. Data from simulations of 2018 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on July 31. 
(Full story at 2018 Corn Yield Forecasts: Physiological Maturity Expected Before Historical Averages)
LocationWater RegimeLong-Term
Average Yield

(bu/ac) §
Range of Yp
Forecasts
as of Aug 1

(bu/ac)¶
Probability (%) of
2018 Yield to be:
Simulated
Current

Crop Stage*
BelowNearAbove
25th75th(relative to the
long-term Yp)†
NE
Alliance Irrigated 191 188 217 7% 59% 34% R2, Blister
Beatrice Dryland 114 149 179 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Irrigated 233 226 241 0% 100% 0% R4, Dough
Clay Center Dryland 149 170 218 0% 26% 74% R4, Dough
Irrigated 244 245 263 0% 81% 19% R4, Dough
Concord Dryland 143 208 243 0% 0% 100% R3, Milk
Irrigated 251 247 269 3% 81% 17% R4, Dough
Elgin Irrigated 251 256 285 0% 53% 47% R3, Milk
Holdrege Dryland 105 119 138 0% 14% 86% R4, Dough
Irrigated 241 241 261 0% 83% 17% R4, Dough
McCook Dryland 82 113 126 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Irrigated 225 222 246 8% 69% 22% R3, Milk
Mead Dryland 157 207 241 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Irrigated 235 245 268 0% 56% 44% R4, Dough
North Platte Dryland 86 121 138 0% 0% 100% R3, Milk
Irrigated 230 234 272 3% 53% 44% R2, Blister
O'Neil Irrigated 221 234 277 0% 42% 58% R2, Blister
IA
Ames Dryland 228 236 258 0% 62% 38% R4, Dough
Crawfordsville Dryland 221 155 173 100% 0% 0% R4, Dough
Kanawha Dryland 225 225 253 0% 68% 32% R3, Milk
Lewis Dryland 183 186 228 0% 42% 58% R4, Dough
Nashua Dryland 225 229 247 4% 75% 21% R3, Milk
Sutherland Dryland 193 191 212 0% 75% 25% R3, Milk
IL
Bondville Dryland 214 271 290 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Freeport Dryland 197 226 251 0% 7% 93% R4, Dough
Olney Dryland 188 212 231 0% 15% 85% R5, Dent
Peoria Dryland 165 237 255 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Springfield Dryland 170 220 229 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
IN
Butlerville Dryland 223 206 220 20% 80% 0% R4, Dough
Columbia City Dryland 219 231 259 0% 47% 53% R2, Blister
Davis Dryland 214 250 261 0% 7% 93% R3, Milk
West Lafayette Dryland 229 224 242 0% 79% 21% R3, Milk
KS
Garden City Irrigated 222 215 232 0% 100% 0% R4, Dough
Hutchinson Dryland 93 126 130 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Manhattan Dryland 126 94 95 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Scandia Dryland 120 130 164 0% 32% 68% R4, Dough
Irrigated 238 253 271 0% 47% 53% R4, Dough
Silverlake Dryland 129 61 61 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Irrigated 220 221 233 0% 97% 3% R5, Dent
MI
Ceresco Dryland 174 199 220 0% 12% 88% R1, Silking
MN
Eldred Dryland 101 70 104 62% 14% 24% R3, Milk
Lamberton Dryland 180 231 253 0% 0% 100% R3, Milk
Waseca Dryland 203 241 274 0% 5% 95% R3, Milk
MO
Brunswick Dryland 183 137 142 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Monroe City Dryland 171 191 201 0% 24% 76% R4, Dough
St Joseph Dryland 154 91 95 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
ND
Dazey Dryland 107 37 72 83% 17% 0% R3, Milk
OH
Custar Dryland 195 215 247 0% 25% 75% R2, Blister
South Charleston Dryland 208 226 251 0% 31% 69% R3, Milk
Wooster Dryland 202 220 250 0% 38% 63% R2, Blister

§ Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2018 potential yields based on average planting date in 2018, indicating yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). 
† Probability of obtaining a 2018 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) the long-term potential yield at each location.