Aug. 22, 2018 Corn Yield Forecast Table 1

Aug. 22, 2018 Corn Yield Forecast Table 1

August 23, 2018
Table 1. Data from simulations of 2018 end-of-season corn yield potential and real-time crop stage performed on August 22. 
(Full story at 2018 Corn Yield Forecasts Indicate High Temperature during Vegetative Stages had Little Impact on Forecasted Yield Potential)
LocationWater RegimeLong-Term
Average Yield
(bu/ac) §		Range of Yp
Forecasts
as of Aug 1
(bu/ac)¶		Probability (%) of
2018 Yield to be:		Simulated
Current
Crop Stage*
BelowNearAbove
25th75th(relative to the
long-term Yp)†
NE
 Alliance Irrigated 191 196 225 0% 45% 55% R4, Dough
Beatrice Rainfed 114 138 140 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 233 Black layer on Sept. 20. Final yield: 234 bu/ac Matured
Clay Center Rainfed 149 216 226 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 244 254 263 0% 89% 11% R5, Dent
Concord Rainfed 143 222 245 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 251 255 270 0% 78% 22% R5, Dent
Elgin Irrigated 251 262 283 0% 50% 50% R5, Dent
Holdrege Rainfed 105 139 143 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 241 255 269 0% 70% 30% R5, Dent
McCook Rainfed 82 123 128 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 225 237 252 0% 64% 36% R5, Dent
Mead Rainfed 157 229 240 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Irrigated 235 251 264 0% 58% 42% R5, Dent
North Platte Rainfed 86 126 144 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
Irrigated 230 252 287 0% 25% 75% R4, Dough
O'Neil Irrigated 221 242 272 0% 27% 73% R4, Dough
IA
 Ames Rainfed 228 237 245 0% 93% 7% R5, Dent
Crawfordsville Rainfed 221 144 145 100% 0% 0% R5, Dent
Kanawha Rainfed 225 220 234 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Lewis Rainfed 183 180 184 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Nashua Rainfed 225 220 234 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Sutherland Rainfed 193 172 185 31% 69% 0% R5, Dent
IL
 Bondville Rainfed 214 268 277 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Freeport Rainfed 197 240 252 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Olney Rainfed 188 Black layer on August 16, Final yield: 226 bu/ac Matured
Peoria Rainfed 165 240 245 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Springfield Rainfed 170 Black layer on August 9, Final yield: 220 bu/ac Matured
IN
 Butlerville Rainfed 223 209 212 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Columbia City Rainfed 219 238 249 0% 33% 67% R4, Dough
Davis Rainfed 214 253 260 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
West Lafayette Rainfed 229 221 228 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
KS
 Garden City Irrigated 222 Black layer on September 20. Final yield: 231 bu/ac Matured
Hutchinson Rainfed 93 Black layer on August 9. Final yield: 134 bu/ac Matured
Manhattan Rainfed 126 Black layer on August 31. Final yield: 96 bu/ac Matured
Scandia Rainfed 120 129 131 0% 100% 0% R5, Dent
Irrigated 238 271 273 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Silverlake Rainfed 129 Black layer on August 30. Final yield: 61 bu/ac Matured
Irrigated 220 Black layer on August 9. Final yield: 228 bu/ac Matured
MI
 Ceresco Rainfed 174 199 207 0% 12% 88% R4, Dough
MN
 Eldred Rainfed 101 70 83 95% 5% 0% R5, Dent
Lamberton Rainfed 180 229 241 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Waseca Rainfed 203 242 259 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
MO
 Brunswick Rainfed 183 Black layer on August 8. Final yield: 145 bu/ac Matured
Monroe City Rainfed 171 Black layer on September 16. Final yield: 196 bu/ac Matured
St Joseph Rainfed 154 Black layer on August 4. Final yield: 74 bu/ac Matured
ND
 Dazey Rainfed 107 61 67 100% 0% 0% R4, Dough
OH
 Custar Rainfed 195 230 244 0% 0% 100% R4, Dough
South Charleston Rainfed 208 244 258 0% 0% 100% R5, Dent
Wooster Rainfed 202 230 253 0% 12% 88% R4, Dough

§ Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2018 potential yields based on average planting date in 2018, indicating yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season). 
† Probability of obtaining a 2018 yield below (<-10%), near (±10%), and above (>10%) the long-term potential yield at each location.

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A field of corn.