| Location | Water Regime | Long-Term Average Yield (bu/ac) § | Range of Yp Forecasts as of Aug 1 (bu/ac)¶ | Probability (%) of 2018 Yield to be: | Simulated Current Crop Stage* | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below | Near | Above | |||||||
| 25th | 75th | (relative to the long-term Yp)† | |||||||
NE |
Alliance | Irrigated | 191 | 196 | 225 | 0% | 45% | 55% | R4, Dough |
| Beatrice | Rainfed | 114 | 138 | 140 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 233 | Black layer on Sept. 20. Final yield: 234 bu/ac | Matured | ||||||
| Clay Center | Rainfed | 149 | 216 | 226 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 244 | 254 | 263 | 0% | 89% | 11% | R5, Dent | ||
| Concord | Rainfed | 143 | 222 | 245 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 251 | 255 | 270 | 0% | 78% | 22% | R5, Dent | ||
| Elgin | Irrigated | 251 | 262 | 283 | 0% | 50% | 50% | R5, Dent | |
| Holdrege | Rainfed | 105 | 139 | 143 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 241 | 255 | 269 | 0% | 70% | 30% | R5, Dent | ||
| McCook | Rainfed | 82 | 123 | 128 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 225 | 237 | 252 | 0% | 64% | 36% | R5, Dent | ||
| Mead | Rainfed | 157 | 229 | 240 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 235 | 251 | 264 | 0% | 58% | 42% | R5, Dent | ||
| North Platte | Rainfed | 86 | 126 | 144 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R4, Dough | |
| Irrigated | 230 | 252 | 287 | 0% | 25% | 75% | R4, Dough | ||
| O'Neil | Irrigated | 221 | 242 | 272 | 0% | 27% | 73% | R4, Dough | |
IA |
Ames | Rainfed | 228 | 237 | 245 | 0% | 93% | 7% | R5, Dent |
| Crawfordsville | Rainfed | 221 | 144 | 145 | 100% | 0% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
| Kanawha | Rainfed | 225 | 220 | 234 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
| Lewis | Rainfed | 183 | 180 | 184 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
| Nashua | Rainfed | 225 | 220 | 234 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
| Sutherland | Rainfed | 193 | 172 | 185 | 31% | 69% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
IL |
Bondville | Rainfed | 214 | 268 | 277 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent |
| Freeport | Rainfed | 197 | 240 | 252 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Olney | Rainfed | 188 | Black layer on August 16, Final yield: 226 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
| Peoria | Rainfed | 165 | 240 | 245 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Springfield | Rainfed | 170 | Black layer on August 9, Final yield: 220 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
IN |
Butlerville | Rainfed | 223 | 209 | 212 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent |
| Columbia City | Rainfed | 219 | 238 | 249 | 0% | 33% | 67% | R4, Dough | |
| Davis | Rainfed | 214 | 253 | 260 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| West Lafayette | Rainfed | 229 | 221 | 228 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
KS |
Garden City | Irrigated | 222 | Black layer on September 20. Final yield: 231 bu/ac | Matured | ||||
| Hutchinson | Rainfed | 93 | Black layer on August 9. Final yield: 134 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
| Manhattan | Rainfed | 126 | Black layer on August 31. Final yield: 96 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
| Scandia | Rainfed | 120 | 129 | 131 | 0% | 100% | 0% | R5, Dent | |
| Irrigated | 238 | 271 | 273 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | ||
| Silverlake | Rainfed | 129 | Black layer on August 30. Final yield: 61 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
| Irrigated | 220 | Black layer on August 9. Final yield: 228 bu/ac | Matured | ||||||
MI |
Ceresco | Rainfed | 174 | 199 | 207 | 0% | 12% | 88% | R4, Dough |
MN |
Eldred | Rainfed | 101 | 70 | 83 | 95% | 5% | 0% | R5, Dent |
| Lamberton | Rainfed | 180 | 229 | 241 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Waseca | Rainfed | 203 | 242 | 259 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
MO |
Brunswick | Rainfed | 183 | Black layer on August 8. Final yield: 145 bu/ac | Matured | ||||
| Monroe City | Rainfed | 171 | Black layer on September 16. Final yield: 196 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
| St Joseph | Rainfed | 154 | Black layer on August 4. Final yield: 74 bu/ac | Matured | |||||
ND |
Dazey | Rainfed | 107 | 61 | 67 | 100% | 0% | 0% | R4, Dough |
OH |
Custar | Rainfed | 195 | 230 | 244 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R4, Dough |
| South Charleston | Rainfed | 208 | 244 | 258 | 0% | 0% | 100% | R5, Dent | |
| Wooster | Rainfed | 202 | 230 | 253 | 0% | 12% | 88% | R4, Dough | |
§ Long-term (last 20+ years) potential yield at each location and surrounding area.
¶ Range of forecasted 2018 potential yields based on average planting date in 2018, indicating yields in the 25th and 75th percentile of the potential yield distribution (associated with respective adverse and favorable weather scenarios during the rest of the season).
† Probability of obtaining a 2018 yield below (10%) the long-term potential yield at each location.
