Gonzalo Rizzo - UNL Post-Doc Research Associate, Agronomy and Horticulture

Maps showing likelihood of yield deviations for rainfed corn at various sites.

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 9

August 11, 2017
Corn yield forecasts for Nebraska sites indicate near-average to above average yields for most irrigated sites. There was much more yield variability for rainfed locations where three of the sites were forecast with a 50%-100% chance of below-normal yields and three were forecast for normal yields, while one was near average.

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Probability of yield deviation for normal for irrigated corn, model ran July 18, 2017

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts as of July 18

July 19, 2017
Corn growth stages are estimated for 41 sites in 10 states and yields are estimated for select irrigated and rainfed sites, based on the Hybrid-Maize model and input from specialists and educators across a 10-state area as of July 18, 2017. The authors note that these early season yield forecasts vary widely, particularly for rainfed fields, and may change considerably by end of season.

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Locations of 2017 Yield Forecasting Center sites

2017 Corn Yield Forecasts: Approach and Interpretation of Results

July 6, 2017
This article discusses data and data collection for the Yield Forecasting Center forecasts of crop phenology and yield for 2017, including a map of the site locations and specific data on crop management and soil types for each site.

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Yield Chart for 2016 Corn Yield Forecasts

Hindsight of 2016 Corn Yield Forecasts by the Yield Forecasting Center

May 11, 2017

Here we provide an evaluation of the corn yield forecasts released during the 2016 crop season by the Yield Forecast Center. We compared our end-of-season forecasted yield potential against the average corn yields reported by USDA NASS for rainfed and irrigated production.

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Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)
Figure 1. Variation in kernel setting in corn in Iowa. (Photo by Mark Licht)

Yield Forecast Center Predicts Corn Yields Well Below USDA-NASS Projections

September 22, 2016
End-of-season yield forecasts for irrigated and dryland corn across eight states in the Corn Belt indicate above average yields for 2016, but not the record-breaking yields predicted by USDA in their September forecast. While two states are forecast to have yields below the 10-year average (-1% to -4%), the remaining states showed above average yields ranging from 1% to 21% above the 10-year average.

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Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.
Probabilities of yield deviations for rainfed corn production across the Corn Belt.

Corn Yield Forecasts as of Sept. 7

September 8, 2016
The Sept. 7 corn yield forecasts show a majority of the irrigated sites expected to produce above normal, but not record-breaking yields. Forecasted yields for rainfed sites are more variable, although most are expected to be near normal. Above average yields are expected for 11 of the 37 sites studied and below-normal yields are forecast for five sites.

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Map of corn yield deviation from long-term averages
Map of corn yield deviation from long-term averages

Corn Yield Forecasts for Aug. 24, Including State Forecasts

August 25, 2016
August 24 corn yield forecasts for 41 sites across the Corn Belt showed many near or above average. At Nebraska rainfed corn sites there is a high probability (>75%) of above-average yield at the North Platte and central east sites and a high probability (>75%) of below-average yield at the southwestern and southeastern Nebraska sites (McCook, Clay Center, and Beatrice). In irrigated corn there was a high probability of near or above average yields for all except the Beatrice site. See the story for data tables and discussion.

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A corn field at mid-grain filling near Atkinson, Nebr. (Photo courtesy of Nicolas Cafaro La Menza and Mariano Hernandez; taken August 10, 2016).
A corn field at mid-grain filling near Atkinson, Nebr. (Photo courtesy of Nicolas Cafaro La Menza and Mariano Hernandez; taken August 10, 2016).

2016 Corn Yield Forecasts as of Aug. 10

August 11, 2016
Simulations of 2016 end-of-season corn yield potential for 41 sites indicate high probability of near or above-average yields in irrigated fields, but much more variability across the Corn Belt for rainfed fields. Several sites in southern and northeast Nebraska and in Iowa show a higher probability of below average yields. The article includes yield forecasts for each site, along with conditions for the period contributing to the forecasts.

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