May 18, 2007

Estimating the Potential Profit from a Fungicide Application to Control Wheat Diseases

The cost benefit formula is:

(PYL x YP x SP) – FAC = PP

where

PYL = Preventable Yield Loss (%)

YP = Yield Potential (bu/ac)

SP = Selling Price ($/bu)

FAC = Fungicide Application Cost ($/ac)

And PP = Potential Profit ($/ac)

Table II shows the potential profit to expect if estimated preventable yield loss is held constant at 10%, 15%, and 20%; yield potential is held constant at 60 bu/ac, selling price rises in $0.50/bu increments; and fungicide application cost is held constant at $20/bu.

From Tables I and II, it can be seen that the preventable yield loss resulting from applying a fungicide and the selling price of wheat both have a strong influence on the potential profit to expect. The potential profit increases significantly with increasing preventable yield loss and increasing selling price.

Stephen Wegulo
Extension Plant Pathologist, Lincoln

Table I.  Potential profit (PP) to expect if estimated preventable yield loss (PYL) is held constant at 10%, 15%, and 20%; yield potential (YP) rises in 5 bu/ac increments; selling price (SP) is held constant at $4/bu; and fungicide application cost (FAC) is held constant at $20/ac.
PYL (%)	YP (bu/a)	SP ($/bu)	FAC ($/a)	PP ($/a)
10	30	4.00	20.00	-8.00
10	35	4.00	20.00	-6.00
10	40	4.00	20.00	-4.00
10	45	4.00	20.00	-2.00
10	50	4.00	20.00	0
10	55	4.00	20.00	2.00
10	60	4.00	20.00	4.00
10	65	4.00	20.00	6.00
10	70	4.00	20.00	8.00
10	75	4.00	20.00	10.00
10	80	4.00	20.00	12.00
10	85	4.00	20.00	14.00
10	90	4.00	20.00	16.00
10	95	4.00	20.00	18.00
10	100	4.00	20.00	20.00
10	105	4.00	20.00	22.00
15	30	4.00	20.00	-2.00
15	35	4.00	20.00	1.00
15	40	4.00	20.00	4.00
15	45	4.00	20.00	7.00
15	50	4.00	20.00	10.00
15	55	4.00	20.00	13.00
15	60	4.00	20.00	16.00
15	65	4.00	20.00	19.00
15	70	4.00	20.00	22.00
15	75	4.00	20.00	25.00
15	80	4.00	20.00	28.00
15	85	4.00	20.00	31.00
15	90	4.00	20.00	34.00
15	95	4.00	20.00	37.00
15	100	4.00	20.00	40.00
15	105	4.00	20.00	43.00
20	30	4.00	20.00	4.00
20	35	4.00	20.00	8.00
20	40	4.00	20.00	12.00
20	45	4.00	20.00	16.00
20	50	4.00	20.00	20.00
20	55	4.00	20.00	24.00
20	60	4.00	20.00	28.00
20	65	4.00	20.00	32.00
20	70	4.00	20.00	36.00
20	75	4.00	20.00	40.00
20	80	4.00	20.00	44.00
20	85	4.00	20.00	48.00
20	90	4.00	20.00	52.00
20	95	4.00	20.00	56.00
20	100	4.00	20.00	60.00
20	105	4.00	20.00	64.00

Table II.  Potential profit (PP) to expect if estimated preventable yield loss (PYL) is held constant at 10%, 15%, and 20%; yield potential (YP) is held constant at 60 bu/ac; selling price (SP) rises in  $0.50/bu increments; and fungicide application cost (FAC) is held constant at $20/ac.
PYL (%)	YP (bu/a)	SP ($/bu)	FAC ($/a)	PP ($/a)
10	60	3.00	20.00	-2.00
10	60	3.50	20.00	1.00
10	60	4.00	20.00	4.00
10	60	4.50	20.00	7.00
10	60	5.00	20.00	10.00
10	60	5.50	20.00	13.00
10	60	6.00	20.00	16.00
15	60	3.00	20.00	7.00
15	60	3.50	20.00	11.50
15	60	4.00	20.00	16.00
15	60	4.50	20.00	20.50
15	60	5.00	20.00	25.00
15	60	5.50	20.00	29.50
15	60	6.00	20.00	34.00
20	60	3.00	20.00	16.00
20	60	3.50	20.00	22.00
20	60	4.00	20.00	28.00
20	60	4.50	20.00	34.00
20	60	5.00	20.00	40.00
20	60	5.50	20.00	46.00
20	60	6.00	20.00	52.00

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