The key to this winters abnormally warm temperatures can be directly tied to the month of January, which came in as the warmest on record for the 112 years of data available. Statewide temperatures averaged a whopping 36.7°F or 13.0°F above normal, as compared to the mean of the 112 year data set. It should be noted that individual stations may exceed statewide departures from normal as listed by the National Climatic Data Center.
December and February statewide average temperatures were much closer to normal as compared to January. December 2005 statewide temperatures averaged 28.6°F, ranking it as the 46th warmest in the 112 year data set. The post Thanksgiving blizzard and resultant sub-zero reading across most of the state dominated the first half of the month. February statewide average temperatures averaged 28.6°F, also ranking it as the 46th warmest out of 112 years of available data.
The recent trend of active weather since the March snowstorm may help counter the winters stretch of abnormally warm weather. As long as precipitation events continue on a regular basis, surface moisture should be enough to counteract some of the abnormal surface heating we experienced this winter due to extremely dry soil surface conditions. In addition, analysis of winter temperatures in comparison to summer temperatures for Nebraska show no positive correlation. That is, a warm winter doesn't guarantee a warm summer.
On a cautionary note, the latest Climate Prediction Center forecast for the summer continues to indicate a tendency toward above normal temperatures, particularly centered on the months of July and August. With the recent stretch of active storm activity, it will be interesting to see if the new summer outlook to be issued the third week of April deviates from the forecasts issued in January, February, and March, now that surface conditions are considerably moister than when the forecasts were first issued.
Al Dutcher
State Climatologist
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