University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources

August 11, 2006

Likely now on the downhill side of the 2006 drought

Rains improve moisture levels, but more needed to affect long-term drought

Figure 1. Percent of maximum available water in soil profile, Aug. 4-Aug. 10, 2006. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center)
Significant rainfall has occurred across portions of south central, central, and eastern Nebraska since early August. Rain totals from the NeRAIN (Nebraska Rainfall Assessment and Information Network) indicate totals in excess of 7 inches near Kearney and 2-4 inches in a broad swath along the I-80 corridor. Much of this moisture resulted from monsoon moisture coming up from the southwest and interacting with a frontal boundary draped across the Central Great Plains.

The moisture is a welcome relief to the abnormally hot dry weather that has gripped the region since mid-May and should provide beneficial moisture to the soybean crop across eastern Nebraska (see this week's Field updates). Unfortunately, most of the Panhandle and western Sandhills region failed to share in this bounty. As of August 8, the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that extreme drought conditions now exist across most of the Panhandle and western third of the Sandhills.

Areas showing some improvement include southeastern Nebraska, where abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions exist, as well as a 50-mile swath from Kearney to Columbus to Yankton, South Dakota where conditions improved enough to be classified as moderate drought conditions. The remainder of the eastern two-thirds of the state remains under severe drought conditions.

Central Plains, U.S. Drought Moniotor, August 8, 2006.
Conditions improved some with additional rains late this week and predictions of more rains for the night of Aug. 12 would help further. Monsoon moisture remains in place and is expected to interact with frontal boundaries located across the Central Plains. With no significant winds aloft to rapidly propagate developing storms, localized heavy rainfall is probable.

Even with the recent rainfall, soil moisture readings across the state indicate exceptionally dry conditions still exist. Figure 1 shows the most recent seven-day period ending on Aug. 8 for percent of available water in the top four feet of soil profile. This map is a comparison of the most current seven-day period to the remaining seven-day periods in the historical data base from the High Plains Regional Climate Center's soil moisture monitoring network.

Even with the abundance of recent moisture across eastern Nebraska, available soil moisture remained in the lower 20% of seven-day readings ending on August 8. In addition, a large pocket of 10-20% readings appeared across the western Sandhills into the southeastern corner of the Panhandle. Only a small area near Kearney and along the southwestern border of Nebraska show available soil water to be in the upper half of historical readings.

Soil moisture conditions may continue to improve over the next two weeks if short- and medium-term models are correct. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center (CPC) indicates that the monsoon moisture feed will continue for the next 14 days, which should result in above normal moisture for most of the state east of the Panhandle. Temperatures are projected to be average to below average due to frequent cloud cover as the southwestern moisture moves northeastward into the central Plains.

If the CPC forecasts are correct, it’s possible that the peak of the 2006 agricultural drought for the eastern two-thirds of Nebraska occurred at the end of July. In the western third, drought conditions aren’t showing any signs of weakening. Even with the welcome rainfall, hydrological drought conditions will continue into the foreseeable future and require an abundance of fall, winter, and spring moisture to substantially improve conditions across the western two-thirds of the state.

Al Dutcher
State Climatologist

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Copyright 2006 by the University of Nebraska Board of Regents. All rights reserved.
Published by University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension in the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources Cooperating with the counties and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
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