Sept. 5, 2003

Soybean irrigation may still be required to achieve top yields in many areas of the state where subsoil moisture is limited. Photo by Brett Hampton

Grain price outlook meetings underway

With a host of marketing and risk management alternatives available and the ever-changing fundamental supply and demand conditions, farmers and ranchers need to evaluate how various marketing tools and decisions will perform given current and expected prices.

These price outlook meetings will help update producers and agribusiness managers on current and projected supply and demand conditions expected to affect prices and marketing decisions for the new crop year, as well as price outlook and risk management strategies for livestock production in turbulent times.

Presenters will include Lynn Lutgen, extension grain marketing specialist; Darrell Mark, extension agribusiness management and marketing specialist; and Dillon Feuz, extension livestock marketing specialist.

The programs are free and sponsored by the University of Nebraska Cooperative Extension and Department of Agricultural Economics. For further information, contact your local county Extension office.

The schedule of remaining programs in the series follows:

Sept. 16, 9:00 a.m. – Hitchcock County Fairgrounds, Culbertson

Sept. 17, 9:00 a.m. – Dawson County Fairgrounds 4-H Building, Lexington

Sept. 17, 1:30 p.m. – Buffalo County Extension Office, Kearney

Sept. 17, 7:00 p.m. – Ag Park Club Room, Columbus

Sept. 18, 1:30 p.m. – Gage County Fairgrounds, Beatrice

Sept. 18, 7:30 p.m. – York County Extension, York

Sept. 19, 9:00 a.m. – Public Library, Geneva

Sept. 19, 2:00 p.m. - American Legion Club Room, Nelson

Sept. 22, 9:00 a.m. – Ag Auditorium, Hamilton County Fairgrounds, Aurora

Sept. 22, 1:00 p.m. – Merrick County Fairgrounds 4-H Building, Central City

Sept. 23, 7:00 p.m. – Saline Center Hall*, rural Saline County

Sept. 24, 1:30 p.m. – Lancaster County Extension Office, Lincoln

Typically, 60% of the available moisture in the top four feet of the root zone can be depleted at crop maturity without reducing grain yield. Table 1 gives the minimum allowable balance for common soil textures. The need for additional irrigation can be determined if you know the predicted water requirement to reach maturity and the remaining usable moisture.

Table 1. Allowable soil moisture deficits and minimum allowable balances at physiological maturity.
Soil type	Available	Allowable soil	Minimum allowable
	water capacity	moisture deficit	balance in top 4 feet
		in top 4 feet	of soil profileª
		of soil profileª
	(inches/foot)	—(inches)—
Silty clay loam	1.6	3.8	2.6
Upland soil loam	2.0	4.8	3.2
Bottomland silt loam	2.5	6.0	4.0
Very fine sandy loam	1.8	4.3	2.9

Combine header adjustments can help you salvage the most yield from drought-damaged corn. Photo by Brett Hampton

Your success or failure harvesting this year’s crop will be determined where the combine first touches the crop. Ears may be small and light, making it easy for them to “escape” the combine header. Take a critical look at your header to determine if add-ons are necessary to keep small ears from falling back down the snouts or from being thrown out of the header as you move through the field. Beans may be difficult to harvest again this year if they are short or if they mature early due to dry conditions. Matching header adjustments to crop conditions will be very important to prevent harvest losses.

Yields for dryland crops will be low, making it difficult to keep enough material flowing into the combine to effectively thresh the crop without excessive damage to kernels and beans. Combine adjustment is the key to preventing excessive damage. One possibility is to increase field operating speed; however, this will only be successful if corresponding adjustments are made to all header controls. Gathering chain, snapping roll, and reel speeds will have to be increased with higher field speeds.

Monitor both the amount and evenness of material flowing through the header to the feeder house. Uneven flows will indicate improper adjustments and can result in increased grain damage or combine plugging. Remember to adjust stripper plate and snapping roll openings on your corn head to compensate for potentially smaller ears and stalks.

Another solution to the decrease in material flowing through the combine is to adjust the cylinder (or rotor) speed and concave clearance. Check your owner’s manual to set the machine for expected conditions and make refinements as field conditions change. Remember that the variation in yield and grain moisture content from dry areas of the field to not-so-dry areas will be more pronounced this year and you will have to be on your toes when it comes to in-field adjustments.

As if the variations in yield weren’t enough to worry about, dry years also tend to cause decreases in test weight and smaller kernels (or beans). Fan speed and sieve openings should be adjusted to compensate for this. Again, start with the owner’s manual settings and fine tune as you go. Unfortunately, maturity of different parts of the plants will likely be off schedule this year. Stalks may dry faster or slower than the ears, depending on the variety and severity of stress. This can increase the potential for lodging and pod or ear losses as the fall progresses. This, coupled with a potential increase of stress-induced diseases, may cause producers to consider harvesting at the upper range of moisture content to prevent field losses and storage problems. The decrease in vegetation in the field should speed in-field drying, but could increase shatter losses if over-drying occurs.

Drying grain for storage also will be tricky this year. Those variations in crop moisture content that made combine adjustments necessary will also cause grief when drying and storing the crops. Over-drying, under-drying, and decreases in already low test weights could all contribute to storage problems and crop marketability. Decrease the dryer temperature and consider relying more on combination drying or natural-air drying and aeration to minimize test weight losses and more evenly dry the entire grain mass. Lighter test weights and potentially higher amounts of trash going into bins could make “coring” a necessity to remove fines and foreign matter from the center of all bins, including those with spreaders. Coring also will make crop insurance yield measurement more accurate since it tends to level the surface of the grain in the bin. Remember to take measurements relative to the yield from each field to get a more accurate accounting of drought-related losses.

Finally, this crop is going to require more frequent monitoring to make sure it stays in condition through the storage season. Proper cool-down and possible warm-up (depending on length of summer storage) will be important. Be sure to contact a University of Nebraska Cooperative Extension educator if you have questions related to drought-related grain harvest and storage.

Winter wheat has two peak water use periods as can be seen in the figure, fall and late spring. In the fall, water use continues as long as weather conditions are favorable. Upon freezing, transpiration by the wheat is near zero, but evaporation from the soil surface continues and must be replaced through precipitation or irrigation. Wheat can use up to four inches of water from fall planting through dormancy, depending on the duration of snow cover.

Most everyone knows that the critical time for irrigation in wheat production is prior to flowering. But equally important is the need for water during fall growth. Because of the need for water during fall growth and winter dormancy, a fall irrigation is recommended if precipitation has not been adequate. Soil water must be present in the top two feet of the soil profile to be of use during this early stage of growth. It could take two inches of water on sandy soil and four inches on a clay soil to fill the top two feet of the soil profile. When fall irrigating, the goal should be to provide adequate water for germination and early growth, yet leave room deeper in the soil profile for expected precipitation. This allows one to take full advantage of off-season precipitation, yet meet winter wheat water requirements.

Be sure soil water in the fall provides adequate water below the seed. Water in the soil moves from wet areas to dry areas. As evaporation dries the surface, soil water moves from the deeper depths to replace the water being evaporated near the surface. As the water migrates, it replenishes the soil water around the seed during the critical germination and emergence time period.

If soil water conditions are extremely dry, irrigate before planting to partially fill the soil profile. Planting into moist soil conditions allows more consistent and uniform seeding depth. Applying one to two inches of water after the seed has been planted will cause soil particles to dislodge and move from the tops of soil ridges into the seed furrow. This results in the seed being covered with more soil. More importantly, the soil moved by the water over the seed is composed of fine soil particles that are tightly packed, increasing the potential for crusting which can make emergence more difficult and leave the soil vulnerable to wind erosion.

Producers new to growing winter wheat should understand that soil type can have a significant influence on the yield potential when irrigation is limited. Most dry land winter wheat is produced on finer textured soils where water holding capacity is much greater than on coarser soils. Finer textured soils have the potential of storing a greater amount of water than many of the traditionally irrigated areas that have lower water holding capacity soils.

Aspergillus ear rot, characterized by a light green mold, can develop into the mycotoxin aflatoxin.

For the most part, identification of the grain mold causing the infection is not as important as determining the concentration of specific mycotoxins in the grain, which might affect use and trade of the grain. Several fungi produce the mycotoxins commonly found in Nebraska. Common symptoms on the ear and individual kernels are described and summarized in a new photo guide, Ear Rots and Grain Molds in Corn, EC03-1888. The NU Cooperative Extension publication is available from your local extension office or by contacting IANR Communications and Information Technology, 402-472-2821 (voice) or 402-472-0025 (fax).

Aflatoxin is just one kind of mycotoxin that may be present in Nebraska-grown corn. Fumonisin, vomitoxin (deoxynivalenol, DON) and zearalenone also may be present. They are different chemicals, so the adverse health effects they cause and the amounts expected to cause problems differ. Information about adverse health effects caused by those mycotoxins and ergot may be found in the NU NebGuide G03-1513, Understanding Fungal (Mold) Toxins (Mycotoxins), and guidelines for use of mycotoxin contaminated feed may be found in NebGuide G03-1514, Use of Feed Contaminated with Fungal (Mold) Toxins (Mycotoxins).

From the regulatory side, Nebraska Department of Agriculture (NDA) policy allows for grain to be blended when aflatoxin is found at levels greater than what is permitted for the intended species as follows: Grain containing aflatoxin levels at 100 ppb or less can be fed to breeding cattle, breeding swine, and mature poultry, 200 ppb or less to finishing swine greater than 100 lbs. in weight, and 300 ppb or less to finishing beef cattle. Grain containing aflatoxin levels at 20 ppb or less can be used for human food, dairy, and immature animals, and at no time will blending be permitted for the purpose of using the grain for human consumption or for feeding to dairy animals or immature animals.

When blending occurs the seller is required to have the grain tested by a certified grain inspection service to verify the level of aflatoxin in the blended corn. The seller is also required to label the corn for the intended species depending on the level of aflatoxin in the final blend. The seller is required to notify the buyer of such and the buyer’s name and address, level of aflatoxin, and intended species is required to accompany the shipment of corn. A list of official service providers who can perform certified tests for commerce purposes is at: www.usda.gov/gipsa/aboutus/servicemap/usmap.htm. These are also referred to as Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) facilities.

The main management consideration at this time will be to make sure that harvest is timely and the grain moisture is reduced as quickly as possible. Often, fields with mycotoxin problems also have stalk rot problems. Timely harvest of these fields will be critical to obtain maximum yield and keep the grain off the ground. Harvest fields that had uneven stands earlier in the year first, if possible, as these will usually have more stalk rot. Once the grain is harvested, the grain moisture should be reduced to less than 15% within 48 hours. Moisture levels above 15% will favor continued development of the mold in the grain and can increase mycotoxin contamination levels during storage. Temperature also will affect grain mold development, with storage temperatures below 40^oF being optimum to reduce the potential for mold growth in storage.

Other management options for stored grain include:

• Maintain good air circulation in storage bins.
• Minimize mechanical damage during harvest and postharvest handling.
• Minimize insect damage during storage.
• Clean storage bins thoroughly each season to remove last year’s grain mold problems.
• • Bin sanitation is critical when the ability to maintain cool and dry storage is lacking.
  • Bins with false floors may require additional efforts to remove fines and broken kernels.
  • Bins can be sanitized using a bleach solution (6 oz bleach per gallon of water).

Resources

Many excellent NU Cooperative Extension resources address various aspects of mycotoxins and are available online or from your local Cooperative Extension Office.

While the best way to measure the moisture of freshly chopped forage is to weigh it and dry it, this may take more time, equipment, and planning then you have. A useful in-field method is called the squeeze test. Start by chopping some forage as you would to fill the silo. Then grab a couple handfuls of chopped forage and squeeze them tightly in your fists for about 30 seconds.

Does free juice run or drip from your fingers? This forage is too wet for high quality ensiling. Wait a few days to chop and try again. What if it doesn't drip? Then, slowly open your hand. Is your hand barely damp and does the ball of forage start to fall apart quickly? This forage is too dry and is likely to heat and spoil in the silo. Add lots of water or find a wetter forage to mix with it. When you release your squeeze, if your fingers and palm are moist and the forage ball holds together, the forage is just right for chopping.

As we consider the impact on individual crops, dry beans that received timely irrigation this spring are well on the way to maturity. Lack of water at this stage will only impact those producers who planted beans late or more significantly, delayed spring irrigation which in turn delays the rate of dry bean maturity.

Corn that is at beginning dent requires approximately 5 inches of water to reach maturity while corn at full dent requires only 2.5 inches of water to complete the crop. Most corn should be at or beyond beginning dent and therefore will need only 3-4 inches of water to reach maturity. A medium textured soil can hold more than 3.0 inches of water in the top four feet of the soil profile. On those fields where irrigation has been maintained throughout the season, there will be little impact on yield whether the corn is taken for silage or grain.

For alfalfa and sugarbeet growers the situation is a little different. Since these crops continue to grow until frost occurs, we can likely expect some yield reduction due to the lack of water late in the growing season. Again, if irrigation has been maintained throughout the season, sugarbeets, after using available water in the soil, will need an additional 3 inches of water before harvest begins October 1. Those sugarbeets harvested later in October will continue to use some water. Although water stress at this stage should have minimal impact on yield, water needs to be available during harvest to avoid root breakage and yield loss.

If frost were to occur September 25, alfalfa would need about 5 inches of water between September 1 and the 25. The degree of stress will depend on when alfalfa was cut. Alfalfa harvested around September 1 will use about 2.5 inches of water or about half of the water needs of a full growing crop.

Irrigation in the North Platte Valley has been a challenge in 2003 and may likely be challenging again in 2004. Producers continue to look for methods where they can improve their irrigation practices. What they have found is that even minor changes can improve irrigation efficiency.

“The faculty and staff associated with SCREC have been productive valued members of the IANR community. Budget shortfalls have led to very difficult decisions that have had significant impacts on the lives of those and other members of the IANR community,” Alan Baquet, former SCREC director, said this week. “Even though we will not have a resident research faculty at the Clay Center location, we will continue to have a research program that addresses the critical needs of crop producers in that region.”

David Althouse, SCREC/SCAL farm manager and long-term IANR employee, and several research technicians will continue to be located at the newly named South Central Agricultural Laboratory.

Following is information on research and extension responsibilities and contact information for these faculty members.

Alan Baquet, former SCREC district director, was named Associate Vice Chancellor for the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources on a three-year fixed term basis. As part of his focus to update IANR’s Strategic Plan, he has attended 30 listening sessions with constituents across Nebraska and is seeking input from IANR faculty, staff and administrators. He also is leading a committee looking at IANR land resources used for research and demonstration. The committee will develop recommendations regarding the future use of these holdings.
Contact: Alan Baquet, Associate Vice Chancellor for IANR, 202 Agriculture Hall, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0708; phone: (402) 472-2871; Email: abaquet1@unl.edu

Also look at weed density. Are your fields getting weedier each year? Are many of the problems perennial plants like bluegrass, dock, or dandelions? This can suggest an alfalfa stand that lacks the vigor or density needed to compete. A new field should be considered.

Sometimes alfalfa stands will last a long time; however, sometimes a thick weed-free stand may need to be replaced. For instance, many dryland fields yield well for several years. Once they have exhausted all available subsoil moisture, though, yields drop even though stands may remain thick. In these fields, yield is limited only to what annual rainfall can support and many dryland fields now have reached this stage. Rotating to a new field can provide a fresh source of deep subsoil moisture. And don't forget that the crop that follows alfalfa will get some free nitrogen as well as a rotation-based yield boost. Rotating alfalfa through your fields just a little more frequently will give you this boost more often.

To keep grazing until permanent pastures are ready, the rye, triticale or even wheat needs to be planted specifically for grazing. It doesn't take a lot of acres and often one acre can feed two or three cows for a month if grazing doesn't start until plants begin to joint. Another option is to plant more acres and start grazing soon after greenup. In this case, you can still plant corn, beans, or other row crops into the grazed out stubble.

Paul Hay, Extension Educator in Gage County: Early dryland corn harvested in southeast Nebraska is yielding in the range of 20-50 bushels per acre with no signs of harvest molds. There has been lots of interest in additional wheat planting after fall crop harvest. Extension is urging farmers to remember the average wheat yields rather than the last two years for planning purposes. There has been significant movement of operating loans to FAS/FmHA in recent weeks.

Tom Dorn, Extension Educator in Lancaster County: This week I surveyed four dryland corn fields in northwest Lancaster County and a dryland soybean field. Ear counts, and kernel counts per ear were taken in each field. Number of rows of kernels was quite good due to the June rainfall, but the number of kernels per row reflected the dry weather since June. Results were:

Field 1 -- corn. Most leaves dry; 20,500 ears per acre; average of 22.2 kernels per row and 18 rows. Assuming 110,000 kernels per bushel on this drought-stressed corn, yield was estimated at 75 bu/ac.

Field 2 -- corn. Most leaves dry. 21,000 ears per acre. Average of 26.4 kernels per row and 16.8 rows. Assuming 110,000 kernels per bushel, yield estimated at 85 bu.

Field 3 -- corn. Corn planted into 2002 wheat stubble. Most leaves had some green tissue. 23,500 ears per acre. Average of 31.4 kernels per row and 16.8 rows. Assuming 100,000 kernels per acre on this moderately drought-stressed corn, yield estimated at 126 bu/ac.

Field 4 -- corn. Some green tissue on upper leaves. 18,000 ears per acre. Average of 37.6 kernels per row and 16.0 rows. Assuming 105,000 kernels per bushel, yield estimated at 103 bu/ac.

Field 5 -- soybean. Leaves turning color. 105,000 plants per acre. Average of 34.5 pods with 2.5 beans/pod. Assuming 240,000 beans per bushel, yield estimated at 37 bu/ac.

Corn condition rated 16% very poor, 15% poor, 23% fair, 30% good, and 16% excellent, above last year but below average. Irrigated fields rated 73% good and excellent while dryland fields rated 10%. This compares to 5%3 and 5%, respectively, a year ago. Seventy-eight percent of the fields had reached the dent stage, behind last year at 87% and average at 88%. Fourteen percent of the acreage was mature, lagging last year at 29% and average at 23%.

Soybean condition declined and rated 21% very poor, 25% poor, 28% fair, 20% good, and 6% excellent, above last year but below average. Thirty-nine percent of the acreage had turned color, behind last year at 57% and average at 49%. Ten percent of the crop had dropped leaves, compared to less than 17% a year ago and 15% average.

Sorghum condition rated 18% very poor, 28% poor, 39% fair, 15% good, and 0% excellent, above last year but below average. Ninety-four percent of the acreage was headed, behind last year at 97% and average at 99%. Heads had turned turned color on 52% of the acreage, behind last year at 67% and average at 71%. The crop was mature on 2% of the acreage, behind 11% last year and 13% average.

Dry bean condition rated 4% very poor, 11% poor, 30% fair, 46% good, and 9% excellent. Seventy-one percent of the acreage had turned color, ahead of last year at 56% but behind average at 77%. Thirty percent had dropped leaves, same as last year but behind average at 48. Harvest had progressed to 7% complete, behind 10% last year and 17% average.

Wheat planting progressed to 12% sown, ahead of last year at 10% and average at 9%.

Proso millet harvest advanced to 29% complete, ahead of 20% last year.

Alfalfa condition declined and rated 24% very poor, 21% poor, 31% fair, 21% good, and 3% excellent, above last year but below average. Third cutting activities were 94% harvested, ahead of last year at 91% and average at 93%. Fourth cutting activities continued where growth permitted with 13% harvested, behind 21% last year and 15% average.

North Platte - Sept. 9

Lexington - Sept. 16

Norfolk - Sept. 23 - RMA (Risk Management Agency information will be included)

The contact for the Farm Mediation program at the Nebraska Department of Agriculture is Marian Beethe (402-471-6890) or email marianjb@agr.state.ne.us

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