More Rain Predicted For Eastern Areas; Temps May Warm

More Rain Predicted For Eastern Areas; Temps May Warm

Drought parched areas of Nebraska finally received widespread precipitation of 2-5 inches over a 36-hour period from late Sunday through early Tuesday morning.  It is more common to see this type of broad-based precipitation with early spring storms than during convective outbreaks during our severe weather season.

7-day precipitation record Figure 1. Precipitation in inches from June 4 to June 10, 2014. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center) Early June precipitation record Figure 2. Precipitation in inches from June 1 to June 11, 2014. (Source: High Plains Regional Climate Center)

Normal June precipitation averages 3.5 inches for western Nebraska; this single event produced a month's worth of precipitation from southwest through north central Nebraska. What is even more impressive is that the heaviest storm totals occurred over areas of Nebraska that were depicted as experiencing the most severe drought conditions in the state (Figure 1).

While this single event may not bring an end to long-term drought conditions, it does offer producers a glimmer of hope.  Additional June precipitation prior to this storm system provided for cumulative precipitation totals in excess of four inches across broad areas of southwest, west central, north central, and northeast Nebraska (Figure 2).

Forecasts

Current weather models indicate that the next week should bring 1.50-3.00 inches of moisture south and east of a line from Holdrege to Sioux City. Precipitation forecasts for western Nebraska are not so generous with 0.10-0.25 inches depicted across the Panhandle. Southwest and west central Nebraska moisture totals are predicted to range from 0.25-1.50 inches, with the heaviest amounts expected in the southwest corner.

Weather models have not reached a consensus regarding temperature for the next two weeks.  Warmer conditions are predicted for this weekend, but a series of systems will be crossing the central Plains and temperatures may drop to below seasonal levels.  U.S. weather models build to 90°F temperatures into the central U.S. during the last 10 days of the month, while European models indicate below normal temperatures.

Because there has been significant rainfall across the central and southern plains, a verification of the U.S. models would mean sultry daytime conditions that could bring stress conditions to cattle feedlots.  It is too early to place a high confidence that these conditions will materialize, but the potential does exist.  Additionally, the U.S. models scale back heavy precipitation as upper air ridging builds into the central United States.

If the European models verify, hot and humid conditions will primarily impact Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas.  Normal to below normal temperatures would likely occur across the northern and central plains.  In addition, a robust precipitation pattern would be likely across Nebraska, the northern plains, and the central Corn Belt.

Al Dutcher
State Climatologist

June 12, 2014

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