August 10, 2007

Nationally, corn production for 2007 is forecast at 13.1 billion bushels, up 24% from last year and 17% above 2005, according to the August 10 Crop Production Report from the National Agrficultural Statistics Service.

Based on conditions as of August 1, yields are expected to average 152.8 bushels per acre, up 3.7 bushels from last year. If realized, this will be the second highest yield on record, behind the 160.4 bushel yield in 2004. However, production will be the largest on record as growers intend to harvest the most corn acres for gain since 1933.

Yield forecasts are higher than last year across the Great Plains where frequent rainfall during much of the growing season provided abundant soil moisture for filling the crop. Higher yields are also expected in the central Corn Belt and Delta where timely rains benefited the crop. Expected yields across much of the northern and eastern Corn Belt, Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Atlantic Coast States are below last year as hot, dry conditions during much of the growing season reduced soil moisture supplies and stressed the crop.

Soybean production is forecast at 2.63 billion bushels, down 18% from last year's record high and down 14% from 2005. Based on August 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 41.5 bushels per acre, down 1.2 bushels from last year. Yields are lower that 2006 throughout most of the Atlantic Coast States, most of the Corn Belt, and the Tennessee Valley, while yields are expected to remain unchanged or increase across the Great Plains, the Gulf Coast States, and Arkansas. Area for harvest, at 63.3 million acres, remains unchanged from June but is down 15% from 2006.

All wheat production, at 2.11 billion bushels, is down 1% from the July forecast but up 17% from 2006. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 20.6 bushels per acre, down 0.1 bushel from last month but 1.9 bushels above last year.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.54 billion bushels. This is down 2% from last month but 18% above 2006. The U.S. yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.3 bushel from last month and down 0.4 bushel from last year. The area expected to be harvested for grain totals 37.2 million acres, down 1% from last month but up 20% from last year.